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[虚拟币交流]
比特币流动性转向美国 现货ETF重塑加密货币市场(转)
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归功于美国新推出的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),与海外平台相比,美国加密货币交易所的比特币交易显得更为容易。: t' w' u, C" R& d! E* Y2 r/ f2 R
2 \+ B$ g( L. \% E8 w 研究公司Kaiko的数据显示,今年到目前为止,美国交易场所的交易行为平均占比特币中间价2%以内买卖行为的近一半,! m7 I( L ?8 {1 ^& t
& k- z( G M3 w# i. b B该数据统计区间跨越了美国比特币现货ETF的推出事件。出价和要价在中间价2%以内的交易行为,可以在不过度扰乱价格的情9 }( R; g0 |. i
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况下执行订单,该指标数量越多,表明流动性越好。根据这一指标,2023年,非美国平台在比特币市场深度上占据了绝大部分份额。, U P G6 |" c
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今年1月11日,九个美国比特币ETF首次亮相,而拥有十多年历史的Grayscale比特币信托基金也在同一天转换为比特币ETF。迄今
$ i- M4 j0 W! e9 }
# b! p" s2 I Q为止,包括贝莱德和富达投资在内的这组产品已经吸引了50亿美元的投资净流入。对这些产品的期待和推出,刺激了比特币价格在过# E; ~+ B: M: Q V, F3 ?6 u1 m
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去12个月里翻了一番。
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流动性增加; R! k5 c9 }: n4 z
( h c8 u; s7 s0 B6 B, @. c 现货ETF发行商之一VanEck的数字资产研究主管马修·西格尔(Matthew Sigel)说:“比特币的积极价格走势在美国交易时段最为; r5 o: W2 ^, ]
! d2 A0 K/ L6 x8 G明显,因为市场参与者利用了流动性增加的优势。”
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8 b+ I. t% Z! H+ G 一些观察家将比特币现货ETF视为一个拐点,称ETF将扩大加密货币的采用。乐观人士预计,数字资产交易量将从FTX交易所及其3 `( G* B' d/ u2 n. `$ x1 Y
5 S" W) ^ w( p8 S; H+ J/ }姊妹对冲基金阿拉米达研究公司(Alameda Research)在2022年熊市中倒闭后的低迷水平恢复过来。4 A% \( a5 Y; {7 T" F5 {
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ETF的影响已经显现。例如,根据Kaiko高级分析师Dessislava Aubert的数据,目前57%的比特币兑美元交易在美国市场时段进行,
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5 B# R/ F- p3 p( I* Q& a. e4 a# I而一年前这一比例仅为48%。
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未平仓合约
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, N0 x6 ?7 j7 \1 e 值得注意的是,在衍生品领域,芝加哥商品交易所比特币期货市场的未平仓合约正向ETF获批时创下的历史最高水平回升。未平. z6 J& J9 n2 p. w7 |
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仓合约的增加表明,美国机构对加密货币相关的风险敞口和对冲更感兴趣。) u) E( X1 d9 }6 g, q* `
3 ], p& ^2 J3 Z: c$ u 在每日美国市场收盘时,比特币ETF将根据专用基准计算其资产净值,这一过程有助于发现比特币价格。3 K3 r. i5 d" a/ c! p1 Y+ [
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加密货币主经纪商FalconX的研究主管戴维·劳恩特(David Lawant)说,这种“透明、可靠的参考点”使投资者能够“在指定时间集
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% h+ }2 ~5 k; W1 x) |中进行大额交易”,因此可能减少了对市场的影响。: a9 e' F, p7 Z: U( |6 I
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Lawant说,投资者需要密切关注ETF的流入情况,因为“当买入流消退时,价格更可能回落”。/ Y* b( X5 R( P2 m/ f7 I
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