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[虚拟币交流]
比特币流动性转向美国 现货ETF重塑加密货币市场(转)
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归功于美国新推出的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),与海外平台相比,美国加密货币交易所的比特币交易显得更为容易。* N$ }' j/ G Z: W5 ]. ~) B$ M& ]
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研究公司Kaiko的数据显示,今年到目前为止,美国交易场所的交易行为平均占比特币中间价2%以内买卖行为的近一半,
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该数据统计区间跨越了美国比特币现货ETF的推出事件。出价和要价在中间价2%以内的交易行为,可以在不过度扰乱价格的情
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8 n; J' O! Z8 J; M7 @! {况下执行订单,该指标数量越多,表明流动性越好。根据这一指标,2023年,非美国平台在比特币市场深度上占据了绝大部分份额。
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今年1月11日,九个美国比特币ETF首次亮相,而拥有十多年历史的Grayscale比特币信托基金也在同一天转换为比特币ETF。迄今- S5 m& _! ^# r$ Z
: W5 g- U( u8 u" k t4 C为止,包括贝莱德和富达投资在内的这组产品已经吸引了50亿美元的投资净流入。对这些产品的期待和推出,刺激了比特币价格在过
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$ {- `9 Q% V! F5 D( y3 f7 h0 V去12个月里翻了一番。2 M; X- \# ?- Y" N0 I( g7 Q8 T
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流动性增加+ ~1 Y. g) C( m' y
`. w$ S- @" r 现货ETF发行商之一VanEck的数字资产研究主管马修·西格尔(Matthew Sigel)说:“比特币的积极价格走势在美国交易时段最为
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/ R8 b$ o- O; I8 O0 P( h# D4 k明显,因为市场参与者利用了流动性增加的优势。”" \- Q6 i% l: _2 m1 Z$ ~* U
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一些观察家将比特币现货ETF视为一个拐点,称ETF将扩大加密货币的采用。乐观人士预计,数字资产交易量将从FTX交易所及其
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姊妹对冲基金阿拉米达研究公司(Alameda Research)在2022年熊市中倒闭后的低迷水平恢复过来。. R; P9 l7 y( L" n! u7 C! {: N T
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ETF的影响已经显现。例如,根据Kaiko高级分析师Dessislava Aubert的数据,目前57%的比特币兑美元交易在美国市场时段进行,
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0 B5 J, f+ Y4 ~ a X/ i而一年前这一比例仅为48%。. a. T0 X5 Y& o# M% m* H# b
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未平仓合约
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! |4 Z g7 M) L# C& @ 值得注意的是,在衍生品领域,芝加哥商品交易所比特币期货市场的未平仓合约正向ETF获批时创下的历史最高水平回升。未平 l& z0 Y& ?5 t' z4 K
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仓合约的增加表明,美国机构对加密货币相关的风险敞口和对冲更感兴趣。0 O* \* H" f- h. r' s
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在每日美国市场收盘时,比特币ETF将根据专用基准计算其资产净值,这一过程有助于发现比特币价格。% b; a: T, Q* T
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加密货币主经纪商FalconX的研究主管戴维·劳恩特(David Lawant)说,这种“透明、可靠的参考点”使投资者能够“在指定时间集: m0 h8 m& p5 C+ ?) r% G4 }
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中进行大额交易”,因此可能减少了对市场的影响。
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Lawant说,投资者需要密切关注ETF的流入情况,因为“当买入流消退时,价格更可能回落”。' X6 O. J4 w4 U0 \2 Q, {
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