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[虚拟币交流]
比特币流动性转向美国 现货ETF重塑加密货币市场(转)
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归功于美国新推出的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),与海外平台相比,美国加密货币交易所的比特币交易显得更为容易。
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3 A5 A1 g) \: z O5 i: P4 r, l 研究公司Kaiko的数据显示,今年到目前为止,美国交易场所的交易行为平均占比特币中间价2%以内买卖行为的近一半,' T0 J- N4 E* d
$ j# t/ F' C G+ r4 p该数据统计区间跨越了美国比特币现货ETF的推出事件。出价和要价在中间价2%以内的交易行为,可以在不过度扰乱价格的情
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况下执行订单,该指标数量越多,表明流动性越好。根据这一指标,2023年,非美国平台在比特币市场深度上占据了绝大部分份额。. T& f" Q0 o" @0 w. v* I, j0 P
5 g7 Z! A$ j# n 今年1月11日,九个美国比特币ETF首次亮相,而拥有十多年历史的Grayscale比特币信托基金也在同一天转换为比特币ETF。迄今
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为止,包括贝莱德和富达投资在内的这组产品已经吸引了50亿美元的投资净流入。对这些产品的期待和推出,刺激了比特币价格在过
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/ q% P: p9 M4 ~0 s- i6 a p" [9 E去12个月里翻了一番。' `+ p& B9 o' s7 p: E
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流动性增加
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0 \5 q8 n; g( x# |; | 现货ETF发行商之一VanEck的数字资产研究主管马修·西格尔(Matthew Sigel)说:“比特币的积极价格走势在美国交易时段最为0 P' Z5 ], n6 H: E6 K: f2 F
g3 c4 o3 `8 [. q2 i! W明显,因为市场参与者利用了流动性增加的优势。”
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一些观察家将比特币现货ETF视为一个拐点,称ETF将扩大加密货币的采用。乐观人士预计,数字资产交易量将从FTX交易所及其
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姊妹对冲基金阿拉米达研究公司(Alameda Research)在2022年熊市中倒闭后的低迷水平恢复过来。! a) j7 \6 U* {. [
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ETF的影响已经显现。例如,根据Kaiko高级分析师Dessislava Aubert的数据,目前57%的比特币兑美元交易在美国市场时段进行,- z$ V/ m, w" a0 ~
6 `/ y' i+ [; J# g而一年前这一比例仅为48%。9 S7 {& X N4 X
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未平仓合约
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值得注意的是,在衍生品领域,芝加哥商品交易所比特币期货市场的未平仓合约正向ETF获批时创下的历史最高水平回升。未平& T/ O- E7 q# u$ z
$ B6 C' `! f" ~8 \1 f仓合约的增加表明,美国机构对加密货币相关的风险敞口和对冲更感兴趣。' U% n8 U5 F9 Q3 n' c9 u- V2 |
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在每日美国市场收盘时,比特币ETF将根据专用基准计算其资产净值,这一过程有助于发现比特币价格。
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加密货币主经纪商FalconX的研究主管戴维·劳恩特(David Lawant)说,这种“透明、可靠的参考点”使投资者能够“在指定时间集
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. {( T/ g* Q+ I2 l2 _中进行大额交易”,因此可能减少了对市场的影响。
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4 C' l9 `4 V' F# o Lawant说,投资者需要密切关注ETF的流入情况,因为“当买入流消退时,价格更可能回落”。
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