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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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以威廉为标准,只统计 英超,西甲,意甲 $ P' p+ t/ T- P& W2 y; D) V9 h5 L. p
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只跟踪一个联赛. K" b* n) P7 I8 A$ D/ w1 d9 e$ q

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: P, W( |; V+ s' f2 B全塞季  分别买 主胜,  平,   负赔( X. V& u) q* l" U8 X, _

( L6 \& v. |* h- R' z; h$ F三条线  ,三年统计结果  全部亏水钱,积少成多也不少啊 ,最后收益差别不大,% w# g% `1 n* K6 V
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法:  全程跟踪一个联赛,一个塞季, 只买一边, 主胜 或负赔(平局出现相对概率要少)2 N3 O4 w- s+ }% v7 X8 |

1 Q. S. ^; J2 i- H然后通过基本面或盘赔特征,排除一部分球赛, 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高, 只需要增高一点,
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; r$ w% G; k/ h5 V就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱,  然后就是不断累积经验,多排除一些球赛,多赚一点水钱
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7 O4 S- Z2 k6 n1 D* }当经验积累到一定程度, 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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! K- H) l2 k) h5 q3 ~亚盘没有统计,想当然,  低水胜出概率高点,  让盘方胜出概率高点,只有两个方向容易判断,3 w) p1 X7 z0 E: B
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点, 选低水+让球方,一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪,开始肯定输水钱,
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了,就可以把水钱赚回来。9 s/ S/ \. q8 G) I/ Q! S
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理论依据: 只买一边 ,一定不会让你亏多少,因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的,一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。" y" {& o) d/ w/ N" e* T9 D& R6 p

4 J/ U# X( ^7 n/ A1 m2 w排除比选择要容易积累经验, 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ,比那些可能出现 要容易判断
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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的,/ q$ f3 I5 E- o$ e
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但是每个赛季 5-10%, 是可以做到的,
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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5 t0 q3 I" k4 k0 t9 g9 l' |: T在DC赚大钱的人,都是用高风险去博高收益,风险大利润才高,2 Q2 v9 j" T! |: Q. R8 V

/ L  V9 F* q, N9 V1 G2 U% q0 r1 L2 _7 Z几次发现十几倍的负赔,就是不敢去,买了平,这就是人性。# |# C, p# ]# `* m2 e+ v4 r( c

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6 r; U, g( O5 Y$ N9 T2 C常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。1 B5 V1 s# I4 n% g. e7 ^
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放弃一夜暴富,放弃神奇的方法, 放弃高的胜率,
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: f3 h3 n" X- y7 B) Z- ~6 `就是回避了大的亏损,
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大亏,小亏,小赢,大赢,  DC就这四种结果,6 ^6 u) i9 w$ \1 v, B7 O) M- w
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回避了大亏,用经验避免小亏,就只剩下 赢了。
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