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本周黄金和白银延续涨势，而比特币则横盘整理。市场分析师指出，贵金属与比特币之间的分化正在加剧。历史数据显示，在宏观经济形势变化时，比特币的走势会滞后于贵金属。
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瑞士银行将黄金列为领先指标$ n& w2 e% ~' w& E# Z1 h
私人财富管理公司Swissblock Technologies表示，黄金仍然是比特币价格走势的重要信号。该公司在X平台上发表的一篇文章中，将黄金描述为比特币的“剧透预警”，并援引历史经验，指出黄金价格的波动往往先于加密货币市场的重大变化。
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据Swissblock称，当黄金价格上涨而比特币价格持续低迷时，就会出现看涨背离。这种领先滞后关系通常起到蓄势待发的作用，随后比特币价格会大幅上涨。Swissblock以2020-2021年周期为例，当时类似的背离现象之后，比特币价格上涨了约400%。* X6 M$ {; T9 M2 i+ x7 k
0 @, r0 n- \" f3 P1 e9 S: f该公司还强调了相反的信号。当比特币持续上涨而黄金走弱时，这种背离通常标志着流动性枯竭。在2021年的周期中，这种脱钩现象先于比特币在市场达到峰值后约73%的回落。
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有趣的是，Swissblock提到，目前的市场格局依然看涨。金子价格持续走高，而比特币则处于盘整状态，并未出现突破。作为参考，比特币交易价格为 89,538 美元，过去一周下跌了 6%，使其月涨幅收窄至 2.1%。2 F1 S. b8 [1 K3 [) v1 T
) J; \$ @) Q, \/ eAsh Crypto 早前的分析也呼应了这种普遍存在的分歧。该分析师指出，黄金价格已连续 28 个月呈抛物线式上涨，凸显了黄金在本轮周期中的持续走强。他还补充说，比特币的滞后反应可能导致一波强劲的追赶性上涨。( k: W8 r I* r: l! I+ A( C
. Q: g9 M- @6 L3 s2 F% w E% p, {白银价格飙升至历史新高
4 U# v) Q) @* i* O" {# J. f6 m2 r白银价格为宏观经济形势增添了又一信号。昨日，白银价格创下101美元的历史新高，标志着此前数月的稳步上涨之后，价格出现了急剧加速。% I5 y$ K0 U8 K, U! P" C; Q* ?
+ }) P9 ]& y7 A市场数据演出过去五年，白银的投资回报率优于比特币。这一趋势反映出，在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，市场对防御性资产的需求增加。+ X E2 J! D* c: S6 j: S( `
- v, ~6 W, f5 [$ l& \- o- s* d4 Y地缘ZZ紧张局势，包括贸易争端再度升级以及欧洲和中东地区悬而未决的冲突，促使投资者转向传统的价值储存手段。对美国财政可持续性和ZF债务不断攀升的担忧也抑制了风险偏好。 O8 _! u2 t4 D4 W4 k% `( ~
* n& M6 j6 w8 r( e* N在高度不确定时期，资金通常会首先流入传统的避险资产。比特币往往在之后才会出现，那时人们的关注点将从眼前的风险转向货币贬值和流动性扩张。
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目前，黄金和白银继续领涨。比特币价格维持区间震荡，市场关注的焦点在于未来几个月历史是否会重演。
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当前离线
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哈哈，贵金属涨了，比特币还没动静，这节奏真有点像以前了 |
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