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[lastpost] => 2798095 每天有 2 亿枚代币流入市场：零知识证明的大门正以比任何人预想的速度关闭（转） 1768661820 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格盘整，市场情绪再次崩溃！能否反弹至 10 万美元？(转）
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2026年1月初，宏观经济焦虑情绪继续主导市场。! n; |9 H! o9 }2 t( D) Z
& j& c8 O; P' p4 V8 G* a地缘ZZ风险、流动性紧张和避险情绪都对市场情绪造成了压力。比特币承受住了这些压力，没有崩盘。
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相反，随着恐慌情绪加剧，价格在支撑位附近收窄。价格未跌破支撑位表明，内部市场动态抵消了更广泛的宏观压力。
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1月初抛售压力有所缓解。跌势逆转，比特币价格稳定在长期持有者关注的几条成本基础曲线之上。
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随着抛售压力减弱，买家消化了剩余供应，并小幅推高了价格。这一走势反映的是此前空头回补和获利了结，而非强劲的新需求。
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: N" l( V2 o. s1 _5 B% l0 b当比特币 [BTC]接近9万美元高位区间，上方供应增加。新的仓位布局削弱了上涨动能，使风险偏向下行。
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市场情绪有所好转，但仍保持防御姿态。宏观经济的不确定性导致市场波动和流动性限制继续影响着人们的行为。/ {7 _" q$ B- [; Q+ f) w
' x' Q+ I2 z/ m8 i+ Z8 O: u; p; ~" C5 ]因此，市场趋势恢复了正常的交易模式，表明随着投资者重新评估他们的投资，加密货币市场整体出现了积极的转变。
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9 V' \! Q) G* G& |比特币价格在选择性企业资金流动中趋于稳定6 [" u+ W3 {# r/ O$ k4 V m
公司财务部流量2025 年至 2026 年初，这种现象断断续续地出现。资金流入偶尔会激增，通常与局部回调相吻合，但很快就会消退。
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& u8 p* [8 E' d/ d因此，需求看起来更像是策略性而非持续性的。价格短暂波动后，又恢复了原有走势。这种行为表明机构投资者持谨慎态度，而非出于强烈的买入意愿。- l4 d' `# d6 n) q1 E
! k" t9 B, `( s此外，资金流出仍然有限，降低了分配风险。情绪因此，保持中立或略微支持的态度。 C; A2 X! K# W9 h/ i) C
: B8 s/ L$ x' \ |* p2 h然而，持续积累的缺失限制了上涨动能。宏观经济环境依然占据主导地位，影响着投资者的风险承受能力和投资时机。
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3 y8 [) L) R7 Q9 H, q3 d随着市场波动加剧，国债会选择性地介入。因此，它们能够稳定市场下跌，但并不主导市场趋势，从而强化了市场整体上更多地受宏观经济因素驱动的局面。+ X% T% h: o. @# h/ x3 I `# G- `! a
) e+ L+ X, D/ p* D* Z( g R; ^市场情绪再次崩溃！比特币是否仍受困于2025年的供应量限制？
9 k/ T, P# o! t9 w0 h' l比特币的买卖压力Delta值在最近几个交易日一直处于深度负值状态。早期的反弹与短暂的正Delta值相吻合，从而推高了价格。6 P9 E; A1 _) z
+ [6 s* R" J( o* V! E0 U8 |3 O0 h2 E然而，随着红色区域的扩大，每一次上涨都逐渐消退，预示着新的分散趋势。近期的极端下跌与上涨停滞和震荡盘整同时发生。
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这反映的是受宏观经济不确定性加剧的市场情绪驱动的抛售，而非结构性崩溃。买家并未完全消失，但信心依然有限。, f* L. v* ~8 \" T7 [
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要改善市场状况，抛售压力必须缓解，且价格差必须转为正值。这种转变将预示着吸收即将恢复。+ I8 ?6 w2 C/ {1 |: M) L4 l* q
* n' U1 X0 R! F6 u在此之前，整体市场可能仍将保持谨慎，等待流动性缓解或风险情绪改善。2 Y7 H1 {4 l1 e- G% Z
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此外，由于比特币自 2025 年 11 月以来一直横盘整理，市场情绪已再次跌入极度悲观的区间。价格虽然维持在区间高位，但市场信心迅速消退。9 S6 d; a: g3 ^* G
" }1 ^, Y; y* b每一次上涨都伴随着短暂的乐观情绪，随后随着信心崩溃而逆转。这与负面的买卖压力相吻合，尽管市场结构稳定，但卖方仍然占据主导地位。
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因此，市场情绪疲软似乎是被动反应，而非纯粹由宏观因素驱动。相反，2025年尚未解决的供应问题继续限制着上涨空间。6 \- u7 |' s( O
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牛市转牛需要持续的积极压力和市场情绪的稳定。这可能发生在价格突破阻力位后。! R1 ?7 h6 e3 i4 ~
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反之，重新分配将加剧价格盘整。总体而言，比特币目前的停滞更多地反映了供应消化，而非恐慌情绪。
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' |4 [, }$ ]# t2 J9 ~7 l. j最后想说的话
- e8 `2 {0 _ ^比特币的盘整更多是受 2025 年供应过剩的持续影响，而非宏观恐慌，因为尽管市场极度恐慌，抛售压力有所放缓，但价格仍保持稳定。1 R: e8 V7 _: K& w2 o: i, M4 q
只有当持续的需求取代战术性买盘时，上涨空间仍然有限；需要积极的资金流动指标和市场情绪稳定才能突破当前的区间。
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