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[虚拟币交流]
比特币现货流入量跌至 6 周低点，但接下来会有好消息吗？（转）
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比特币（BTC）近来表现平淡，在最近几个交易日中没有出现明显的涨跌，价格走势接近停滞。3 T$ E; F+ H" {: g2 d
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事实上，比特币价格一直维持在 9 万美元至 9.3 万美元的区间内波动，没有出现明显的突破或跌破，投资者密切关注着这些关键价位。这种价格走势引发了一个问题：市场对比特币的普遍情绪是正在转为看跌，还是仅仅在减弱？
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一句忠告？. W2 v- |# E7 y
金融状况指数是一个经济指标，反映传统市场状况如何影响比特币等风险资产。! t7 l8 u! s. ?7 K- ^+ \6 ~$ S
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该指数通过对关键宏观经济指标的标准化值取平均值，来确定更广泛的市场倾向。比特币它根据读数落在图表上的正负区域来评估情绪。6 I& H0 g- }0 _5 q" o. \* w7 [
' _& u1 i+ q1 W4 q+ P" C6 i从历史数据来看，FCI 指数为正值通常与金融环境趋紧和比特币表现疲软相关，而负值则往往支撑比特币价格上涨。实际上，FCI 指数为正值表明金融市场流动性收紧，金融压力加剧。
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# M B2 v% T, V- v截至撰稿时，FCI指数为负值，暗示着一定程度的金融宽松。然而，该指数的负值幅度并不大。如果负值幅度更大，则意味着市场环境更加有利，可能更有利于比特币价格上涨。
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* v; |4 k" K5 E& Z但这还不是全部，因为整个市场的投资者行为似乎也反映了这种略微有利但仍不明朗的环境。: {6 }6 A2 C7 H8 x0 U4 l
. s! w8 U3 J9 ~! k# r投资者活动反映了市场的不确定性吗？8 t6 F0 |6 F! M( S. X) \
尽管宏观经济因素并未带来强烈的“系统性看跌压力”，但投资者对增加比特币投资仍保持谨慎。
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就现货市场而言，Coinglassdata数据显示，每周净流入资金降至六周以来的最低水平，截至发稿时仅为2.82亿美元。这表明，尽管现货投资者仍然看涨，但他们在建仓方面变得更加谨慎。
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+ n% g" W& P# x' t+ l4 |每周资金流入持续下降可能意味着投资者在持续买入活动后已接近耗尽资金。/ q% @& u* T* {/ I" r
% V! z0 f# h w8 D4 ]& m机构投资者也开始显露出谨慎的迹象。今年年初，他们在1月份的第一个交易周就强劲买入了价值4.58亿美元的比特币，但此后便减少了持仓。事实上，仅本周他们就卖出了价值6.81亿美元的比特币。/ `$ L/ Z( H! H1 C" P( t2 l* Y
- W/ L. {7 I2 S" T; l4 ~7 e, a从积累转向分配，通常是短期信念减弱和风险偏好降低的标志。" I, `" p$ v* ~0 b8 G; c/ I
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市场情绪依然疲软
/ @' U6 D1 X' Z! r& i4 J从更广泛的市场兴趣来看，这种定位的变化也很明显。2 X- ]5 n9 u% O9 f+ ] m: m1 Y0 f
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例如，谷歌搜索趋势（可作为零售参与度的指标）已降至39，这是过去一年来的最低水平之一。这可能表明公众对比特币的关注度正在下降。) n/ G9 {4 P! ?1 t) P
5 ~8 Q3 Y$ J0 e% [; E% v相反，长期持有者一直是全球最大加密货币的稳定力量。0 a8 B2 b3 \' j6 y1 o
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最后，二元币销毁天数（CDD）指标出现了一个按下时间读数为 0这表明长期持有者并未转移大量比特币。从历史数据来看，CDD水平上升通常预示着长期持有者正在抛售——这是市场波动加剧的前兆。8 w6 v, C2 Z0 Y9 U# q( [
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目前来看，他们的不作为有助于稳定比特币的价格，同时防止其进一步跌破 90,000 美元关口。
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最后想说的话
' L+ v0 w# l% ]2 P* Q金融状况指数（FCI）显示，尽管比特币相对稳定，但它并未处于牛市阶段。5 u4 \/ l: |$ c- t( W0 v
由于机构投资者开始逆转此前看涨的立场，现货市场资金流入降至六周以来的最低水平。
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感觉这波震荡有点磨人，关键价位守得挺稳，但FCI这指标确实让人有点悬 |
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