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[lastpost] => 2809204 比特币做市商如何将一次例行调整演变成向 6 万美元的暴跌（转） 1772027459 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。" d b7 Z5 g. i2 C& r5 S) w5 c4 u
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。$ J: j) C3 \4 T3 o4 B1 M% K# o
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
* z/ ]: w# d( W7 c! c9 b4 O2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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( r- e( O5 i; B8 |来源：Alphractal+ Y' b% S1 J- D& s
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。; z2 N# k: M) P% i
2 ]9 |& N3 U( I+ e' s# u6 X* R尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。# J) ^6 I& o/ S% O- m) e
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事情变得有趣了
3 x K5 e0 t: m8 C7 t+ XBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。& R) W* b/ y* N4 s1 P- r
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来源：X' F" x( K8 c5 {
3 k- q& R3 F% t根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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4 z. g- z! N; y) I/ wBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。- z8 m+ r" f& i6 z" Y- M. `
; g! T% c4 w3 i& y, o" Q; k# a正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。- S6 X0 J+ L( _* H% O5 U9 `
: Z/ S; b) j, z' j, N3 i随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。( M5 h- l m, ]6 y' g
" U5 b$ j/ @% R# z5 w: J( X2 ^4 w" y空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
1 ^! x0 k' w7 J' ~% A7 i经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。" O K( h( G8 W' ~1 s9 Q5 y
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来源：TradingView, c' z- y2 a& q% I q
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。& ?* o( b" d3 {+ Q5 }0 `. m. \
l, F# j: b! Z# O( N& G然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。5 R8 E! z) l+ t' Z, Y# p& H+ o7 f
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。0 `8 d- i) X% i6 e) p+ D) ^. s4 V
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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