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[lastpost] => 2770223 加密新金融下半场,OKX正在押注哪些新战场?(转) 1759245302 高文胜
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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( a" [/ k/ ]6 U S) h6 W! n* ]6 E( LCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。& P! g& N$ g* ?, o3 {
1 q/ ^9 N. v1 H& Q; s2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期" p+ T Q& S6 Q3 o2 v8 U- a4 _
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;& O; @* J j4 x
5 y, |1 ~, K7 F$ _微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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& y3 E2 Q- W7 b" s; E: zETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:
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' T4 o: B, v ^+ e; {. V0 c市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。6 o3 k( Z- Z; V; J W+ \
+ R! A' M$ ^- {" i9 x随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。( Q+ a5 _1 T# B* ^7 R! H
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。2 h ] P: O! Z: Z
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况2 _: o1 t; l8 j1 [8 a$ T
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! O4 s( b" j( ~" I% C# n虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。' v# T8 l! A# N: F5 u$ Z- ?
0 X' R, m. Y. X9 J2 o% k机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。+ F; l3 ~8 O& u1 m' ~ @
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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; Y" x6 s7 U& [& z. hSOL与XRP:
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1 L% V; {, k; I/ D1 k; c, WSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。! p& s/ m, |6 l2 G/ L9 u; R
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。8 F7 _7 Z8 ^ F) p' W9 @
/ x2 I- G8 W6 t) f' }* e. F) q其他热点项目:; N1 W3 g$ n* T
% `5 R) K# [" V3 l1 G! R9 _; ? P涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。 w, I# A& x( z
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。- H0 d$ P$ q# a; d- b" G- `+ Q5 V
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。- g6 J, Y R5 w9 p; l
* r- s/ j& [6 [0 Z2 F0 R蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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8 b6 G: d5 X" d: q/ V新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。0 W, _, W) a* t6 Q6 u5 r/ h9 K
, _& A3 f1 C4 b6 S5 s( F市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。) N n1 R8 ~8 c( M3 R1 X
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