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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
$ R d2 o J3 |3 M! J! Z 3 k+ M' I0 e6 O/ B
平手中水,主队有利
7 U6 U7 Y1 k a& Y 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。3 Y& a7 ]$ K1 s1 D" W
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
+ l+ I' j6 f g2 h$ I5 S! n 英超主队; }! z9 ^0 R6 S- F t- Z! M
胜:13场 48%
6 u: J/ U1 W2 m 平:5场 17%
: K3 C8 @5 d/ S6 F* n6 l5 T% e 负:9场 35%% J7 ^: O' W3 S% U) g% B, F
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
9 ?% Q/ q* g. M/ M$ ?6 q * _' G* H* _' P, W, d/ S% g$ x
一、初盘阶段
5 ?7 h* U+ G- @- p1 l+ d* T) Z' D 具体到水位如下:
- E% | u0 M$ @9 z 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
! G# [% l* E" V" d3 v 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
- _8 o- M0 q& [% [7 f 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负. l( V6 m5 {! W& f
8 q" A1 R$ ~" W# E1 Q 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。+ z9 H' t* D: J; q: b
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
: D+ B+ H) \1 d. v, A t/ [ 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。. d r0 g9 v% q, o/ c& c
# C0 R( \. P9 o2 y% |1 u 二、临场阶段4 b* }% `) o' P: P6 N
/ q) Q: P5 \( D/ w 具体到变盘和水位如下:
" ?2 n% v, X+ x3 N8 k2 q6 G 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负2 ~2 w" x. K5 A8 [
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
+ r8 n1 u+ M/ r8 y! C" M $ a8 c M8 q% T0 k2 a2 W$ ?
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。# z0 c: e, n3 f' Z( l0 \
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:1 X3 ^1 y* R8 t# t
, [9 d, y0 V+ _. e% C
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿, w' e6 N3 i+ R! Y5 _- w! }7 `! T
初盘:0.82平手1.04
& e3 q3 l4 P# p5 o4 v" M 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
$ f9 [5 m, O1 V+ z
/ S, G& c' m2 i: ? 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
- i/ y2 I: c; G1 K B G8 e 初盘:0.76平手1.104 \: s) J* R e% Z
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91) \" G9 V! [: S* n# z
9 p/ D5 y6 j4 G8 ?# y
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
" D2 q3 A4 ? v- z$ k 初盘:0.82平手1.04. s2 q) z2 Q4 d4 n# z& O1 N: F
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
4 z/ r9 K/ O) v* O/ z* D4 A
- o& `& m; u' e- l% O. Z7 x 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
( M5 n7 ?# n) I) v! O 初盘:0.88平手0.98" @- H9 M$ j+ i
终盘:1.12平/半0.74/ l, \+ ^; w1 j
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
) o3 C, l) ]4 O8 d0 C! `# q& [ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。% m( Z) t& p. H2 U" I
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
( _ l5 M) u6 i8 n0 t : Q+ D" H2 x- C! n& `! D. E8 B8 g! m
三、球队表现
r- W7 C3 X* N! ~
7 Q6 ^. u6 P/ k! x, Z6 Q5 b 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。- P: z# z! \) }5 \- D7 k5 X' `
4 Q* y" |- @1 W- A1 i0 V
四、投注要点& W+ s' B4 O+ M/ p* d
要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 h- W$ e2 s$ f# A4 `: T+ ?0 Y# T4 ~) w
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
4 U6 ]4 d5 D2 {" N! S8 ?. { 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
; q! r4 M9 k% K# E1 L. P: B9 L 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大$ A: V! v6 ?7 C. E
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
3 [# Z2 w+ I1 F# l" {5 c 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大5 `! f7 _6 w, `
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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