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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘' }8 w% K- Y% ~; @7 J, G
     
( t. F8 [. p5 L/ m     平手中水,主队有利
! p5 _6 O* a, ^) q+ T     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
, k2 p, L+ {! W7 }     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:9 d4 ?5 ~- g) M# ?0 m
     英超主队6 C: n. d1 F% L  c& x6 C
     胜:13场 48%
( H# O8 L3 M2 [     平:5场 17%# d5 ~5 c8 S8 G! J3 r2 R  g
     负:9场 35%
2 Z' M6 l$ |$ d7 g1 Z  V     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
1 m) M8 Q# l6 i; r$ N     
6 @$ b* p$ F. j% t7 M8 F     一、初盘阶段
7 N1 a: ^$ T# y) ]3 q     具体到水位如下:
4 R2 u4 @6 `8 `8 i     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负' |0 o6 X/ a2 A) G5 v" o6 j' Z
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
4 L0 Y. Q: Q2 O2 i0 E     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
! t, p. h# n" [' j/ R$ q' j! G$ h     
. J# t2 o% ~2 u7 l+ O     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
- E+ s& u  y, I8 q7 g- o7 e* V     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。2 n3 W( H1 n# z6 A
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
! f% Y9 t( Z1 I     
/ v# M2 d0 o7 ^% i& g. |9 K     二、临场阶段  Y' \- Y6 B9 h6 v$ C
     
9 l' c" i+ y3 O) a5 K6 t     具体到变盘和水位如下:
% U" _2 u  C. z3 E" l8 n7 T( y     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负4 W5 c) N' o- _' r9 x
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
) q. w" Q, l& h5 ^+ i     
" ~0 [; i4 Y2 q: N     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。( t1 r% O5 j  R; S" v: r
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:) j2 y5 H! N5 A. q
     " t4 D8 l, V( N0 T
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
$ w2 r, O% Y3 I- o6 s/ y     初盘:0.82平手1.04' y( v4 w7 e: w
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
2 q  V, g4 y$ _' H' M     * H& B5 t* X9 [8 d. j) s  B+ h/ d
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆7 K  c' o# K, |. ~$ p
     初盘:0.76平手1.10% ^1 W. ~9 ~' V) x- N4 i
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.918 b& [& k" y$ D% U: Q
     % F9 A5 y- d, ?; G# c
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 L& F6 V% D, T
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 O6 h+ }( [) c     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
/ N- j5 w5 w$ j. w; i6 ~     $ u( T4 ^" @  W( @' m
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
& `) C$ D$ B$ }+ C7 c) u     初盘:0.88平手0.982 ^& I: j& E+ |4 C8 e5 Q) U. r
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
7 e0 c1 a5 V4 c, {* w     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。3 A7 F6 ]/ {. h* c- g: {0 C! E
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。% Y* O/ F3 ?* x  P% O) U
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
" k% Y5 z7 i  a' R7 m% s9 H     % V2 E0 j- u  o9 Q
     三、球队表现
. C; \" v, g# Y& |+ O! t' A     : u' H) c9 U: n1 `% C% z4 J0 q+ O
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。" [6 J" I1 X/ e- y! H4 i
     
# Q5 s1 @6 _. @- E" `/ b     四、投注要点; V0 r+ u) _7 b5 `4 Y4 T1 b$ T2 t
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败. y: d: G; l: _7 r
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
% D1 g  E% K% }     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
- m! x/ z! U5 [4 J     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
; H, I; x/ H3 a4 L1 Z     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任) b% \3 a0 n( {$ f" i
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大3 b, J  u2 ~3 c
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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