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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
! d, b% s; |* O' V& G
% x! Q' U3 U8 h/ r7 ]$ O 平手中水,主队有利# ~ l+ d: v' @, H0 w4 \7 M7 b5 f' ~
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。$ |( E5 Q/ n! j) n" V7 L
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:# B' }5 p2 {& Z9 C
英超主队
$ a _0 O8 H N8 C' A* z7 }, | 胜:13场 48%# h. C- f: P7 _7 U8 L2 k* D8 E
平:5场 17%5 Y( S5 v7 Y& W5 r* B
负:9场 35%
4 V9 W+ o! ~3 s$ N, M 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。/ ?- z- H% d4 n4 g
/ S: `+ R7 ?( W6 u; v8 |6 t 一、初盘阶段9 L8 T; {6 ?) A5 J: `3 \4 K
具体到水位如下:
3 H* f Q# A. s7 f% _) a9 d 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
. W3 m8 A# P& I1 F' w! n5 [ 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负) k' D* W. p# Y3 i V
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
) j: [% q- {6 o( h1 S, O j) w0 q& L( j, r4 j% R+ z
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
$ E# N+ w6 p! ]& J6 M% v 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。1 R; F" G( c0 n. g0 z- v
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。: [2 W! e9 h3 _: A1 X" W3 Y# L& y
2 c3 Y: E, G; U$ c6 L 二、临场阶段
( `1 l/ R# [( { h) D1 E
7 B5 Q( ~3 P8 ^8 \9 W+ h9 f9 W 具体到变盘和水位如下:
! _7 S1 c) J+ F3 ] 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负4 k& P% I" r% t# a; ~7 k8 k
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负5 |6 ~/ t4 z3 ~
$ L8 @/ _8 G( M% U0 J. y0 F
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。/ U% f9 z ^- J9 F
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
: S+ F, ^3 G9 E
/ B6 R- o! M) h2 @ 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿+ {5 z! C' D0 P# ]- p9 n
初盘:0.82平手1.045 r! @ u2 k. [
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.852 Y5 K8 G$ F0 W
+ g. [6 o3 U3 |" h6 W
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆. q. a9 `# a- z- f
初盘:0.76平手1.10# G) G @+ S f7 E: [
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
( V; U( a6 J: u, Q' Q- H % b/ }1 H5 }0 y( F3 \4 u/ ^
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
6 m3 s, N& k: E1 ~7 W9 U- U( A 初盘:0.82平手1.04
) L2 A& k- ~6 ]8 C 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
: G, u5 P- |3 g2 y 6 m1 M3 ]/ H% I( m: W% [
伯恩利2-1西汉姆! Z6 L$ {5 k3 \& p
初盘:0.88平手0.98- m1 a. N6 I7 ?: u; {$ {7 k
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
8 U* R, [0 W* y( l: Q7 B 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
/ q. C3 l8 q% c+ b) P: X 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。% e. Z( H$ @- j5 A, ~
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。# _* E. z' ]4 f! @
) |$ ^3 r0 f- ]/ a% f2 g5 `: R$ ?
三、球队表现$ N* n, `! M* b5 v' i" O% m
/ P; M+ `2 m* V2 p
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ I2 Z) k/ m. ?/ H 8 z. K/ A0 [- W* z h
四、投注要点" y/ j) x$ H$ x" u
要点1:平手中水、主多不败: S4 n! V: C" {. R
要点2:平手降盘、走两头! O7 W8 M4 d6 ?" h, I7 y, G
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败) S8 S2 D: r" r8 W$ [, e! @
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
/ R/ O# k( t& f9 r C/ c+ X/ q 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任, h# m! F3 a' f, o, F* h* e
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
4 ?2 R/ h: ]' D8 H! j 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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