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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
6 @* Y- z- R9 c7 ~) ^7 ~" Y 6 F( s9 d5 K! {, L: G
平手中水,主队有利& z3 d* l; X9 W' G. m5 \/ J/ {5 d0 u
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。2 @' N9 X0 ~% n' b, [5 |/ `3 f
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
. v2 F; d8 q( n# D 英超主队
* j* ?, \9 C" I$ ]2 j 胜:13场 48%
- ?* i, n6 Q" s- l# u4 v1 k: \ 平:5场 17%: v6 ~. E! J* J' M1 c
负:9场 35%
8 c' \! I) @+ S1 w Z 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。4 H6 E6 L- U2 I4 C- f
9 g. {( p( m/ V0 \- ?! X, h+ H 一、初盘阶段0 t2 J7 X, M) \
具体到水位如下:: s( z# ^; ]8 x
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负, q0 x [4 Z, Q+ V
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负0 Y$ g- \' |6 k' i: K0 w) v$ m: @1 v
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负3 k4 h! J: n, u; k
9 h! X) i) L% e' X) _! ^8 t 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
2 J0 j2 Q& W& ? 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
9 x( ^- A* d) m+ Q; \7 E; ^: O 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。9 T% T n3 K4 Q/ s
" q4 w* f- A* A5 U# ]; ] 二、临场阶段& r: e, T( u0 B* T/ `
; h' l2 a& w$ a; A
具体到变盘和水位如下:; J" D( `) _; ^
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负. y( R* a! z8 C/ D& A w
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负+ D+ O2 u; p# S9 z u
5 _% V( E: C: I* {
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
; V: A. ^: F+ y1 V$ C" O 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:) }4 R8 I5 l1 C m9 P# Z
9 f" j0 `" J3 i: h2 S! d( ~ 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿. d' O/ I. h. a6 j! R) j# Q
初盘:0.82平手1.04
2 i3 F, `0 N n 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
0 D* q& V" S# {; [. Z5 p
& `" b; l/ m% `; \5 w 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
1 q# ^0 |$ t! r/ x6 w 初盘:0.76平手1.10( W$ g5 {! R* C# V" j" K; y! J
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91. n: l3 v" V3 R' f
$ L& P" J. u X- Y7 _: A3 P
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技: t4 H; W X* U0 h( `3 @& s* W( x
初盘:0.82平手1.04 F! `' s' o" a( i5 J0 U
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98- G: t& \8 ?; {0 T r' l
$ \8 ?6 c0 L0 e+ |1 a0 ^! y6 y
伯恩利2-1西汉姆! A( l _# | D! Z k* m5 A1 {
初盘:0.88平手0.988 X( F2 f7 k- r% |# S9 }
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
- `+ X0 D* e* o) w- G6 B 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
' H5 v9 C3 K& Z: X X/ n1 K$ @ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
* Z) q# ~) c/ \" t 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
) u( q2 t. s' l- @5 V! z( s 8 P( Y$ g* o9 L! E
三、球队表现
7 g/ U4 B" U; w4 ]+ |+ E 9 d& B7 _- B! J
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。: D' o. k; e! q& t: g
5 h2 ?% l* T8 l. n. `
四、投注要点" O' E6 _& P, A! _/ s9 J4 Y l! c8 ^
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
! N% f. Q( }- v 要点2:平手降盘、走两头1 h6 P W+ }8 G% T! A* b0 l8 x0 }
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败4 d# t) L4 G1 Q! Y* E. A, K9 a2 f
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
6 c+ l4 {; n5 V7 N3 F5 m' w, u0 t! B 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
4 ]# Z+ Z& H3 O% E( E! r4 ` 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大# @9 D l/ i8 x a( x$ U. y
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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