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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
* `/ Q5 R3 D0 q2 x) c5 b
5 L+ D3 x# w* k5 P7 g: y" |4 K 平手中水,主队有利
" M* S2 P& F1 @& y5 [" b: O- E% Q 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
# x' B7 T* s. P$ d( o* ~ 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:/ `2 {- V U( c) y, T1 v
英超主队
6 K. D+ e+ {) T! F; f5 @ 胜:13场 48%
. K6 {& [0 r( g) l8 c 平:5场 17%3 U2 q6 | S2 x) Z y
负:9场 35%
$ h& a/ h7 U3 y7 ~/ D) O 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。4 w, Q% d' Q8 r1 E* p/ }% ^$ Z$ t
~& @* B6 Q% D7 r% }8 V" W; h# L' t 一、初盘阶段
% M- \# c" g' x2 i 具体到水位如下:
5 X. ?; U! Y1 u' E- G% x 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
* a1 m7 F9 _( b3 Y( C& e' ?8 D 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负7 T; {9 Q, [$ |" w1 U( k
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负" A( g" Y7 _8 J! Z5 G" D. E( D" x, l( B( H
* A0 k) E) ^; m2 |5 P1 p) z% x) e 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。: F- K2 @1 c& g: F* F7 W& i4 M; m! f
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
5 R* [5 \: ]8 \$ b 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。6 X9 C D" o. P% R' M
" [& r; P# M# x
二、临场阶段3 ~. k7 ?3 Z% V+ r* E. j% B
4 U2 o; z8 d& j; z/ Q+ l w
具体到变盘和水位如下:) m+ ` t e0 B) f
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负9 J0 X: t' j/ k; ~, P7 S
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
7 ~3 |' N9 Q) B/ Z. e8 q
" z1 i+ D2 ~- B& t+ d. P0 Y/ h 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
( }% K5 p7 t; H: P 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:" {' `, W+ j( N+ J7 L0 X
( H- Y( {. a' H$ H, v8 b
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿" M& O8 i9 w5 @3 o# w
初盘:0.82平手1.04$ G9 o8 Z5 K: ?. n% s
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
- f- C4 |8 y* j: w ( D4 K; _) `6 o
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆/ J$ _1 i- `* Z9 l( u
初盘:0.76平手1.10
M1 U7 }+ c1 A# W8 d9 N 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
$ }3 I. a2 d% l( \2 ]6 a $ i# K7 y# M, y2 _) Q3 I
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技; l6 _' I# ?. }' Q5 z
初盘:0.82平手1.04
: F1 h7 J7 ^- c" N) W& ~ 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
# V- Z7 S }5 d( t/ F/ e1 w
3 b4 i0 x" L# U" E2 _ 伯恩利2-1西汉姆" w* ~. r, I' Z% F9 x
初盘:0.88平手0.982 o& R' q3 {' r. {5 W, ?; Z) v. O
终盘:1.12平/半0.74, w6 B2 ^& m, w' r8 z1 d
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
; E5 t+ W: V& u0 s' z6 g( G 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。5 R1 N' r: u, k8 ^
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。( _4 L( s" r3 {" {' M$ H$ K
9 N0 ~ S' {, a* d5 ? 三、球队表现
7 @6 W' N5 W3 d1 b
! [8 @8 l, Y6 J4 O 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
, Q! l" X! n% y( k* ?" n
6 }6 f: C+ X; j 四、投注要点
O9 l! B& u4 y. `$ o- W 要点1:平手中水、主多不败" U; j9 A3 `% H' ~. ?5 t! w
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
9 B/ j. j9 b7 q+ ~6 w% }: c& w) l& D 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败* P3 B' }" [7 e- E3 G
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大0 M+ j/ ]4 l( A$ E
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任: Y8 n/ e9 ? ]" ?( p1 y% @$ _6 g
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大& J# {, v. S0 _, Z0 j: e; m9 i
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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