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! Y; d1 Y" ` l" K$ U+ C
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为4 [4 N; z$ K/ J# G1 g' Z- u
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
. t7 ~3 l: ?- ^0 D6 B衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
$ a* T- Z. G/ Y4 f y一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
/ n) n0 a2 T g5 }7 O- JBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。+ z4 s( U7 X0 \" {( L4 Y( Y3 p# A
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
) A& Q6 w% h$ @& C8 I' S2024年4月第四次减半
4 Q; G. f/ y. r3 k- D机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF( s8 q% p! j" @$ @6 v5 s) Y! Y' q
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
* p7 U, I+ c9 c3 k: @/ I( a针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
) D8 y4 }) U, L9 E9 R' z二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务1 I% R2 r; P. s/ Q* }# ?
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。) @, P! c# L0 T5 E$ N# h* o6 Y
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
; }3 b$ A! h) l; i! S$ x, ?5 S# P诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。/ K f& s! R6 y7 N$ \7 b3 T8 `" o
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁( V r* X s4 k( y
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统/ M* P: X6 o: l
金融(TradFi)产品。
. \/ @+ P# M/ a" |6 F0 y( [4 J如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨6 I ?( B- M# D; B& e- ? E3 C( r
链桥」的项目。
1 @6 g7 [2 ~, b四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
5 k9 Q) v* t2 N1 y# C模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作! H! ^6 ^& ]( V2 x: ?5 ^
等。
M4 X. h1 }5 PPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用/ Z7 q; d5 Q0 t \ t2 M! N7 S
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
9 d# F( E# E2 O五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN" b# d5 {$ W0 e5 N
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位1 K( H+ P1 W4 B, H& b6 ^* M
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
; K g2 f$ F: d4 v- {+ W& wPantera点名了几个项目：7 \) |9 z4 {# W+ j
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
4 s! U, W* q) f9 Q4 m- w: bBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台8 n* n) R" n' c% b9 Z- L5 ~
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品, D* L1 `7 B: G; B
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
E& n/ ]8 B. t( o* nRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游1 n6 g6 |* `+ [' M( b
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
/ g' a6 l5 m( P+ \+ z- yPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚( S8 z! E8 D( L- ]+ w. m
至能直接与L2竞争。
1 ?. i! I, h1 s: {; l也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。+ H! k! n K. z" w
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
' i% @8 h5 l: ~" C5 [& B$ q成为「应用链」。, N8 N7 c1 ^/ \# R7 C/ G9 {+ K
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。2 J( Q' ~. V+ M w
$ g: h# t! u* y' b( Y1 `
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