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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人% N' V2 U, H& H8 ^
8 y: R t3 d( q; B8 Z
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
) Y2 |' c ?1 t% ^/ \6 V5 T
6 d# H0 n1 V& [6 L, x3 D而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富. L8 f* N# r/ Q$ z3 k! S# F
1 A" ]7 }# ~( }. m. w+ |! A; j的千禧一代。
6 a/ L3 }' X# I5 P' `2 N9 f从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
9 Y+ K6 Z3 j0 K, X, I5 x* Q3 e6 q8 O
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
! \- n+ c6 m3 P/ z8 M& X! E" Z" q, N% l' F% W9 v# m
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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3 `+ z+ D& ^: A密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据; y8 B" j6 I/ P$ ^
/ i) U5 t0 n) y' N0 e) l《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
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的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》" k/ Q' m! l1 ~
; N0 N" M. q8 U \( ?. P* q报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
- d% C& g. _$ r" o3 D1 h. [% q
) S# O4 R& C; l. d% \8 m7 k10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
" C$ O, P9 ?) ?6 Y3 w
5 C/ e, T* T% H( t. q4 L1 HETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。. Y1 }9 j& s4 K: f3 M7 k6 _
* b$ b8 B2 z2 Y" G. b
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
|5 P, Y$ C9 ? O
f0 l1 N3 c9 t息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。# F9 `0 M6 O2 `$ H t' ?
% p% b d8 l: E. |/ Q
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密 N/ O6 |+ g- w; Z4 u
& @; g( M- B6 J& x8 f
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
; s0 C6 d5 `6 R' V! ?/ {7 ~5 F
0 ]0 ^% x+ i# y) n传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
8 b' y. F8 U. \- M. s s; I/ K& j" D7 |
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
2 i3 i' a! t5 @5 _6 T' D1 z6 f( I! R0 j. \. j7 t' y
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
! U* @5 g# }1 j3 E7 Z" u# q& a
, W/ y' s( l. p; R* _- P$ H" Q5 C本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
; W! V+ [9 F4 g- [4 k X
0 X0 J2 f& j! M ` p+ P, f系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货: w7 O6 g! j7 o6 n, R. b2 L
; T" |6 O. d/ B0 x5 g币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
( S" G' Q5 d: u O+ G0 p3 M
4 E6 e9 h' V/ E未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富9 N8 k# j0 i, X0 f P; c
t8 _6 H( j3 r, V5 p/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
" n9 C! A5 c, L% F
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