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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
~0 V+ m+ p4 v$ O$ P- L, [1 V断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。' `1 W) W8 F/ X6 A! [5 g
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上2 n+ A7 v0 f8 d8 V# Y5 z
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。! q& N# B" ]. b6 _
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？% ^0 w; X# D- @8 M
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
; Z; l6 D9 K) c1 t/ [, d+ a0 k金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
9 Y1 ^! j8 N! s) w从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
6 _ I$ Z8 ?" m- C7 R低点。, b I' C0 L) Z0 B, W$ @2 I
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
+ q# n! `, v! c另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突' P( Q5 J1 I0 q/ h `6 ]3 F
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。0 j3 u) `* K( q" v3 e3 X5 F
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
, e/ p8 j5 W2 s( H1 M率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。3 }' K, Y( I0 K8 N5 m
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael. M8 _5 [0 y# s% G
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
( X- s) v* T/ Z- d( {“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种5 [4 E; W0 H. P8 g+ i
情况不会在短时间内结束。”8 }2 r% `; x8 B" J) z
纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下
! c9 {0 e% K, X降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
8 O% }8 t8 Y6 K( P比特币ETF即将通过？
% p" O y2 y5 g4 b另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg# I7 v- j4 C t* }
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上
8 @( T: j: b, {) Z表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的3 {+ e& F& n6 A3 m2 v, K7 B1 P
问题。
+ J1 u1 v; G& E: e+ x似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。0 C& X" `5 _$ B
2 C0 K/ N5 L% j o
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