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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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第三节 案例分析- w' ?8 O1 {/ s$ y) @: B
例1:里昂 3-0 梅斯 (法联杯), `! G H1 {* r& j
初赔:1.40 3.70 7.00 支持一球0.80 实际初盘:0.80一球 1.05
% h8 f5 I0 i9 f7 D9 e. w% E 中赔:1.44 3.75 6.25 支持一球0.875 实际中盘:0.82 一球 1.15
/ |9 T2 g0 G9 E2 C 终赔:1.46 3.75 7.70 支持一球0.925 实际终盘:0.75 一球 1.15' h; \' b( X- V- b' O6 }
分析:可能造热方为主队上盘。初盘水位与初赔吻合,上盘未出现同向受热。中盘水位略低于折合水位,下盘赔付较高。高峰期水位与中盘水位一致,缺少明显变化。临场降水为超低水,上盘赔付较于折合水位偏低。初设造热方未出现应有热度,而是一直降低赔付,最终的顺利打出。$ k+ A$ N, S5 B" k8 B
" A6 ~. D' S2 y! J% M3 b 例2:尤文图斯3-0 拿波里
; P8 M& S* z3 G% i/ z* }9 U" [3 e 初赔:1.90 3.10 3.65 支持半球0.90 实际初盘:0.95 半球 0.90
$ X( f) {' x7 s 中赔:2.05 3.15 3.60 支持半球1.05 实际中盘:1.10 半球 0.80
* G) m6 h5 @1 r+ Q 终赔:1.95 3.15 4.00 支持半球0.95 实际终盘:1.00 半球 0.90* U" X! X+ e% ?0 B5 N
分析:主队近况低迷,客队近期状态较好,排名差距不大,客队下盘存在被造热可能。初盘上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘被造热。中盘阶段上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘降水,下盘造热成功。终盘阶段上盘水位下调,略高于折合水位,下盘升水幅度较大盘口贴水较高,造热方赔付较高,最终上盘打出。
8 F: [) U v1 y 1 E c$ m8 U1 l7 M% O4 ]
例3:桑坦德0-0 艾科坎(国王杯)
6 G1 O Q7 h7 J5 z% T 初赔:1.50 3.60 5.30 支持一球1.00 实际初盘:1.00 一球 0.85. V% j1 ~: i8 i( g" `# J V
中赔:1.50 3.70 6.90 支持一球1.00 实际中盘:0.90 一球 1.00
. |4 Z- d& t9 ?4 P! ~, W 终赔:1.55 3.50 6.50 支持一球1.10 实际终盘:1.13 一球 0.77
/ h, {" |1 U9 j7 y/ b 分析:可能造热方向为主队上盘,初赔阶段盘赔水位一致,上下盘都不( J5 X! G: W0 a# b: u; {9 b/ [
热,但上盘贴水较高。中盘阶段上盘降水,存在造热上盘可能;临场阶段上盘升水为超高水,贴水较高,上盘不出。
3 U0 \, r! s, m( o - P! E1 F0 u' X- Y# h- P
例4:奥沙辛拿1-0 海格拉斯(国王杯) x8 \4 h, m6 f1 ~+ n
初赔:1.65 3.40 4.50 支持半一9.75 实际初盘:0.70半球1.15
+ |' T7 V* v- N( L 中赔:1.90 3.30 3.90 支持半球0.90 实际中盘:0.96 半球0.940 b5 k- O3 B- V) o2 Z
终赔:2.05 3.30 3.40 支持半球1.05 实际终盘:1.10 半球 0.800 S. x }2 z0 t5 T2 n0 ~1 V8 C9 x8 w
注:海格拉斯=靴格拉斯9 d, Y7 X1 l$ R, z) p
分析:受热可能方为客队下盘,初盘上盘盘口低于折合盘口给超低水,上盘反成被造热方;中盘阶段上盘升水,上盘水位高于折合水位,上盘造热失败;终盘阶段上盘继续升水,下盘大热。最终上盘打出。
6 {2 ^4 ^1 p t ' l8 Z* H4 ~# X4 F& ^( D
例5、AEK雅典1-1泰利普里斯(希腊超)' M% \7 n) s0 |. ^" q4 N) M
易胜初赔:1.90 3.00 3.65 支持半球中低水
/ n- B) Y0 z- u 实际初盘:0.65 平/半 1.20
- ~8 i5 H) Z" \: ? 易胜终赔:2.10 3.20 3.40 支持平/半低
/ V4 x, r# f/ V 实际终盘:0.82 平/半 1.08 K; ?) ?" O/ C" u
注:泰利普里斯=卓普利斯
5 m. [2 B' J1 ]6 z6 G 分析:受热可能方向主队上盘,初赔盘口开小,给超低水,上盘受热。终赔支持平/半低水,上盘升水后盘赔比较一致,但是在造热方的赔付被提高,主队盘口较为便宜,下盘水位下调。最终上盘受热不出。2 E! x+ Q) O5 g' g0 h
, p* p$ F1 {5 o: j" I2 [ a6 v 例6:帕纳辛奈科斯2-1佩亚列高斯(希腊超)2 [+ t: q4 N3 S8 B9 ]
易胜初赔:1.15 6.00 10.00 支持两球半超低水; e( O) F1 X* b& Z! v \
实际初盘:0.85 两球 1.002 s. _, U* I X- a1 b# Y
易胜终赔:1.11 8.00 12.00 支持三球以上
% T2 W# h, V& o- k 实际终盘:0.75 两球 1.10! O/ S1 ], v+ g, X4 F+ @
注:帕纳辛奈科斯=彭拿典奈高斯
% n. V1 C* p+ h4 @6 ^4 J' X: Z 佩列亚高斯=派里高斯
$ P% x: Z0 _( J; q! e 分析:受热可能上盘主队,初盘盘口开小,水位虽为较低方,但是高于正常折合水位,上盘为受热方。临场继续降水,上盘造热成功型。最终上盘赢球输盘。 |
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所有的复盘,都是在知道结果的前提下进行的,总能找到一个理由或者观点才佐证这个赛果,任何看盘方法都有缺陷性,赌,心态第一,技术第二,运气第三,缺一不可 |
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