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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 . ^- U. i3 t) h* ~# h
余勋也不例外、
1 `( e' y% i" ^5 X# u i0 J0 g其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 6 v! r1 ~+ x6 J# a9 z( f& Y" h* N3 v/ u
是保经济的重要决策！
3 z: a4 k) ^* K# K这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 / N' b4 ^8 P. A; f4 }. T; J
低点26700-32400、
0 K3 N& h/ H, d1 Z6 d反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
& t# h( M7 ?* z但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
) r3 ^; y4 w8 E6 G7 K大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 6 K% O& c5 R# D: b
涨幅就已回撤过半！
5 k2 u3 I' W2 G8 Q: W" e9 p2 `所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
! ]: Q$ ^1 e* t7 g V8 d0 G1 n8 `7 u不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
* \/ }# {' Z( R其次、 - }3 O% Z- g2 k2 b& U9 h
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 7 E/ }* {6 N7 ^/ |2 p9 z
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
; b u4 n; C2 y; }( n( H等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
4 S7 |9 p( H" n% W8 F3 ^美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 D# P9 j6 e! y# b# Q
但回到币圈、
" t" C, U( O6 K& j+ a去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
- a( C( W7 z( A. e' [% H在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
& ?% Q `+ _. }( k5 W而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
4 ~2 t/ \+ K t3 [6 x g0 m. m/ R1 Z个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ! v' Y) B3 H5 o+ X2 E
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
' O2 R; ]! w* G8 R* A' U& c* x对当前的底部、影响有限。 . _8 G- r9 N2 m" E
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
. l5 m4 c% t8 z0 p+ q; F# ~所以27000、即是
/ I4 p, P) ~3 V+ t. ^6 q! F去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
- |& i+ E3 B; ^) P: S4 q) G5 X+ u# }同时还是去年放水初期低点、
( k9 m$ J) [% [' M% x% E也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 # b+ A' |' G2 ~
由此得出的结论是、
# M4 y# [4 @4 [% F' S7 w" r/ L, w A加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
# ^8 r+ f0 O; U; L7 q3 V点位不会出现太大偏离。 ! T% R+ l' x3 R# E2 |& p2 f
综合以上、 ; C d+ Y, F$ ^
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 2 q) W) g7 g% G* d
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 7 H6 z5 f; v, x, p( w2 z" i
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
" ^3 ? O6 }# W; f U抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
* f3 `2 r$ Q! h$ K1 u那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
. c0 |- r q0 T/ e& d0 z4 K即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 3 V# d* [, P$ _& t' P+ T
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 9 F6 K( |5 S& w( r
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 3 e- {( S: }4 H! V2 c
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
" _) L/ O, w2 M逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
$ h( X/ U: v1 ] t7 n+ u高空需至31700-32000间布局、
. d% ^! t b4 b, h5 p. e2 r7 J反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 1 e: b( H+ Z# v# E4 N% S+ ^- {
得不偿失。
6 c' F$ w( a9 e来源：金色财经 |
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