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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 8 b9 T, a' o" w: l0 E+ z
余勋也不例外、
% q5 e9 o4 o( g8 Y" |" m. f. M) o: g0 J其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
; k) R) `. H9 b' P- K是保经济的重要决策！ : ]/ H x1 L, O/ w2 \" F0 y
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 5 d9 U$ u+ d3 G/ a2 F0 E0 G) ~
低点26700-32400、
5 R3 `8 @9 d$ [4 B- P) k0 @反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 9 [, }$ ^1 O% X, B
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 5 d$ L/ |" V( M$ O; J
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 3 z/ [* h' d. i- B2 y$ k
涨幅就已回撤过半！
7 H; v* ]! p5 C( @& M% I+ ~' y& `; W所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
5 U h% I, h2 f" c不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
0 @( |/ o9 R7 M% |1 J( H其次、
7 V* k6 W5 }! Z, t2 l9 b缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ) E: j# n4 ~1 P- N$ @! A& \ F) U# C
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
; o$ L$ e G" k8 S0 ~+ ~! w等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ; x( g' F) D! \$ v
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
& H* J/ a" ^' Q) g1 q但回到币圈、
6 m2 p" Z+ R; z C* N; K) `0 J* U* n去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
5 e k* i" I5 \# \在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ' h7 ?* H& ^" w" v1 T$ e
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
' y2 }% n$ j& D3 ` F. Z个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 / A& o9 c' |% |
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 2 D2 L. S* a3 D7 E$ ]8 x
对当前的底部、影响有限。
9 x6 n1 \$ @3 p) @' Z最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
6 }" x% ]$ c. f# s8 M所以27000、即是
# S! w* f$ p9 E5 N3 n去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
" B% [* @* J7 L5 B- I$ `同时还是去年放水初期低点、 % O$ W5 ? s5 G4 g" x) w5 C
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
# `. d& e( L3 H, f0 p% c, ]/ u1 ?由此得出的结论是、
$ t: f, |% H E6 J$ n% m( A& O加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
- S9 ~- a8 l+ y2 T/ Q# T; a点位不会出现太大偏离。 ( e' |5 u7 W! f2 Q0 N) O9 o
综合以上、 4 b! ~# f- I' C0 F0 o* N
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
6 ^# h0 n6 W) L4 M在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
8 Y1 y( M! z4 k; y9 c4 p9 Z那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
3 W5 ~1 g3 [4 L! U" ]抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
& Y" S3 T2 \& K6 E& v( {. \6 e那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 8 }& N" E" T! A3 x. N. E/ S
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
z+ r: f# G7 U2 w# [3 D美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ' q' [2 y4 ^9 |! Y0 c7 g0 \
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 7 G! w: c# I3 @% b2 c
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
9 q3 E* Q2 ]3 ?+ z2 }逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
, P( d: A5 v7 M9 p1 X: y% |高空需至31700-32000间布局、
# `; W& k$ Y$ n4 z! X: w. K$ C- D; ~反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
) b+ _) u3 P" ?/ ?得不偿失。 - f* C% ~( D* s
来源：金色财经 |
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