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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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8 m- b- }; x, b! @) i) C在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
. `- Z; z5 r5 qVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。1 A0 S4 R0 h; u3 h! {) {9 H1 F9 q
. K* y' a0 p4 b! ~! Z; m: n就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。" y2 ~. @4 H' ]6 B6 B/ O0 Y
6 o9 B+ I: _4 B ]. T“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：
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7 }. Y8 ?$ \" ]2 Q) H“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”2 R) l5 y: j6 Z9 @4 t
7 Q- k3 }: m; J5 T) L) o9 @7 z7 i3 o8 Q这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。# U: E2 \1 C! n# C6 C, j3 F1 @
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。: n" g8 S4 p" Z7 n& }$ Y
) P! A, H0 L# g. Z) j6 pVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：
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“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”% k5 r9 d* {# U+ s
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底部预测不断出现
1 }& R u( ~" c' x: b( U' e与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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; M1 m, z' y1 P2 y这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。6 W( U8 F: i1 U5 Q0 B
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。! K9 t4 C5 w' G) ]0 W# ?
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BTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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& K" t- Z$ F9 d上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。1 R, b. R5 ^* V8 G# J
3 M" g' F9 u" O9 ^/ Q: p4 l9 d7 j% w卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。" f4 M1 O+ s' b4 S9 F
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。
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