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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。; V- c& O8 M' L6 u' J) n
p. Q: z8 @ H6 e% N! z! N在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。3 ~. G+ S# ?3 R/ L4 O
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”% Z, Z. ?% q b; b7 y/ L' b
Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。3 h! m5 F6 n# I+ Z( r
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。. K* ]. H; v# @, ?9 @9 h7 B( _
: l8 r3 _/ T E“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：
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7 q+ I; ]& i- N. L8 P: @+ R“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”" E+ V" @3 d4 e
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。0 }& I2 y# G) o8 B
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。 W y9 [: C9 E( ?" k! ` v
+ E! n" d( b( r, _8 ?( T6 hVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。! Y; b& y3 k/ W/ x r! d' S
5 r6 V( Z- y, u/ ?“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：
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“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”, q) y( ~; e" {! a( w8 t
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底部预测不断出现7 {& l( {- X% M% d4 j
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。/ z7 d' f& o6 y, I; O
! i& L% S! L4 t0 {7 D* S1 x这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。0 X1 }0 l+ y( w1 }3 ]+ [6 O
! T- b2 L4 z' v' w" v' X链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。/ ~' X6 u) r- K+ c
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) t+ ?% Q2 {! @$ c& I( R5 } f% K! YBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode" i+ |' w: {" E4 u8 ?3 o
/ L8 T* S: ^; j& r$ _1 D* s上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。
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卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。6 i1 C: m. o* J( b
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