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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。1 s7 B8 |3 S4 a d
我们先引入下列符号:
5 U/ q% d7 S% d7 d! j2 JPn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
& x; {" @. X! }% P$ Z0 s) S即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。+ e6 o+ v1 n4 A( _+ I
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。7 H/ j. Y7 h: L" I# h% F U
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。( {) n0 E# u \" O% w4 X
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。% ~5 h* o5 H" c7 K9 Y4 G6 e
+ Q4 x. q+ V* F: U! X在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。# x: {5 _" S7 _) z& F
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:
5 H; w6 x! ?9 m% ^" Y9 Y: I* ~7 X1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。3 y) m8 |6 j0 t* e& `
2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。
+ R, `2 Z+ a8 s0 z; `% Q2 l3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。3 \' }8 t* R2 ?
. b- F# e4 D) M- D: y那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:% M. ~2 H% U& C5 N5 o- A; s( p
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
" Z. z3 g# H8 ]4 V1 PD2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
8 |! T8 Z' y- UD3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。$ @) G) W' Y: ?* N8 M; p
3 C3 q+ G- b6 q2 i$ Q$ [同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
+ A+ b* ^2 t: Q& A: u0 s H! QX1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
! L7 }9 k9 z2 Z. R7 ~X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。
0 P5 F: K3 r# j. l" j) }X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。( P. ?+ M! p4 U# j# V) A% x/ i
7 e+ S: `. A/ u; c! Q; z6 A
下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。
/ h T% g. @9 g# k9 X" L: L& T! x3 Y7 O7 H W, J
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)* a9 h) w' P. X; e8 O- h
q; W0 b" e9 t( Q; G在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
5 b" l k/ a- q; }5 a, @K=0 D0=0
4 T& g$ o) V9 B- P/ G7 ~K=1 D1=0 4 }6 I4 d4 z# w- t3 n9 o
K=2 D2=0- M, ?/ Z1 Y7 H5 Z7 E) Y
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
" V/ n+ q% r2 c7 X# E7 A; k$ c; U" e% g* w7 n* V* B
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)! x5 X. c9 u/ W8 i# J8 ]
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。, d! ^, k0 r) t
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo0 e& I% s, E3 P6 }
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
! R4 P; g7 u' J. d9 u& A9 O( ^ 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)$ ]- h' R4 k$ Z+ `8 J3 g
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)8 e. U( R9 z, k$ H# h9 X- M2 }" m
: ~" Q8 b/ ^9 X8 h- w* y2 d1 j. B在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:* X2 Q$ F) J1 s- j. D! s8 L
K=0 X0=Bu*U
n! \' K X3 W) e& GK=1 X1=Bu*U
3 _/ @; k, n) K9 r+ r* kK=2 X2=Bu*U
" P6 V& g4 l/ l1 OK=3;4;....x X3+=03 o0 P% X, B! N0 D' ]
( ]5 D; S+ {% \% q( p! W投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U4 Y# f0 F8 _4 h5 l3 Q _0 T' s
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。) `1 q3 [, g @2 u7 D5 ~0 T7 \) p
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu# A/ w* s# E5 U
U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
, h2 x3 L" o% V/ q5 i+ J 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)% S, z1 |, j) O/ n- o7 K* M
! U6 H1 q. @7 ~0 |% r3 [
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)3 z$ z* U, T% ]; ]' V. y' ]4 G. a$ b2 O
/ }. V( L, E8 R) S u& ^* ^6 b
在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:7 Q+ u. Z2 Q( e m+ ~8 {
K=0 D0=0
! c. N6 s( G2 SK=1 D1=0
7 v7 a: P& r) D, uK=2 D2=0
) b( g8 B7 b7 @1 K, e/ [1 _K=3; D3= Bo; d" k8 O$ V t: V
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O + t; Y4 L7 L# ?8 j: z& q: V
/ y, l) {! y6 G( s3 I/ C4 q投注大球的期望回报总数为:
! q5 s0 Z% l9 K1 ]3 T) D∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3), k. T% D4 P9 a" M6 F5 q5 \
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
3 h' f, F& M6 d ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
$ z; D6 I! F( N! M P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
" }: ]- `3 W: k5 z7 `& @) m; w9 M 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
& f2 \- c- I6 Y+ n) R4 n4 A8 ` 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)# C5 A# D9 i0 i
2 r5 q% p6 \% }: _) y在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:# f; B) {2 n, l5 ~
K=0 X0=Bu*U ( D9 ]1 i0 N) m* ?8 t0 K7 n
K=1 X1=Bu*U 4 g2 ^6 g. }' ]! J; {
K=2 X2=Bu*U 5 b1 H. z4 L/ W0 A
K=3 X3= Bu, I5 W4 D% C7 k
J=4;5;....x X4+=0* k1 m8 p: L. ?# V: n8 A
! m F; i: c Y f/ A
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
( ?2 M4 \8 d4 R4 _" z8 Z在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
8 }# Z/ U; a1 H! ?0 ? O$ I& ` ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
8 }$ I Q: `" B* J% j8 M; K( l3 ] U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=17 y' |3 {1 s/ o
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)% c0 E9 T; x6 O( P( ?$ l
6 j' L# p! ~2 o! u; K, V0 |3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)
- R8 [7 ?5 a* X# x+ T" g2 a, F
5 P5 r9 Y' T$ {5 n在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:- p9 F; C, D) S# e
K=0 D0=0 ; V( O" Q: i. d1 v8 N8 a$ x, s
K=1 D1=0
7 H) q) r( N* v6 P5 Q/ _. dK=2 D2=0
, e/ Y4 M* x6 X& }4 tK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)0 ^9 C+ S$ F/ h6 g
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O ! ^2 Y& w! a' ]1 |9 }& U
* a9 v% q" A7 y0 o
投注大球的期望回报总数为:6 T3 [( X) i3 n. g# K2 S) g% v$ q% }
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3). S4 o6 g# P6 n5 N
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
5 V4 S# `5 O, r1 u) h: p5 y+ H在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
+ b+ { J) |; T# Y( P M* Z ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo+ Q% e0 o( T3 V" E% w3 S
P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
/ A4 ]+ K& a9 K% p2 l2 K2 E O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2
. Z$ ~* H0 B) E 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2) / `6 R- t; |% k; |" d
5 |& g U4 r, Z, O7 u1 R; `( K; \
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:" D9 r# L; T( k% }; [
K=0 X0=Bu*U
G! }0 @* C" C; i3 A4 K- k; \K=1 X1=Bu*U 7 n7 v( @9 N- z- u6 H9 O
K=2 X2=Bu*U 0 g0 _3 ~+ j2 J. z
K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)1 B( w$ d2 _; X$ Z7 j7 d
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
& c% I! V J* y" l( }/ w3 i( T
& ]$ A3 n4 n: i5 ]* q+ J5 ~9 g+ |投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2" q) s& ]6 B3 i8 [* V! B
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
$ b* D- @) w- a* ] ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu
% S9 z0 Y( a) M9 w U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1' n$ j6 C# X; h! q) d
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)7 X0 e- X* m+ j
& E0 R4 m+ t* J/ N6 M% {
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)7 q: c; c* x% g/ {3 v* a `
: p3 h! j# \8 Y3 }: \
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:/ R: U% \0 r1 m! ^
K=0 D0=0
+ w; |4 F# w4 T9 ?K=1 D1=0
" X" u: [# x- }( i. o; u! b0 D% [K=2 D2=08 \- q( \0 W1 F; b6 J
K=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)* {- ~6 h. U8 G% z v- P3 _8 }
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O {7 L) c# y* ^$ H
. }' x+ i H: u0 y投注大球的期望回报总数为:
3 c3 W( X3 R# k m8 ` ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
7 S% ^; f: W1 e. a, s5 c = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
5 K( f+ I5 g+ x, |' p1 z/ e在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。6 K9 v& k# |( z$ A% X
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo+ F) f/ O3 C, Y. Z
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- F* F5 W/ l% `" M# Q2 B7 L- J% h0 C# n
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/21 t9 q' `( }( l/ ^7 {' w4 b( S6 V$ f
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
# T4 }: H: ~3 L2 n* C 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)5 d7 H8 w+ M( m
& W" d, {; n; H
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:6 C7 M. s: p" m& n- [8 L( j
K=0 X0=Bu*U 9 B8 v3 [8 F3 f0 S7 T# g! s; H ]
K=1 X1=Bu*U
4 M8 @/ b. r s( N" U3 H: YK=2 X2=Bu*U
5 J- x8 h, q- A W8 y9 {K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘), w+ h6 @0 Y5 a2 T; R n
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
8 k, P1 Q* g% u( k" K
1 X5 F z5 `5 o* Z投注小球的期望回报总数为:
( c9 H; Z* \( h8 @3 n ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2# |2 b6 P) p) U6 W3 `5 g
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
7 p8 H7 x* R0 x: R3 Z ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu
, m; f+ n+ ^$ E9 d5 ?1 v7 U8 V U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=19 B3 x. d) g8 v
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)# g B/ c) b+ b' z) {2 Z! H" B, L
2 d0 M1 v1 r2 P
7 K" t7 d7 V. s- ?/ J. b/ B
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.7 F0 C/ [" W8 X2 ` ]% c5 Z, ~
大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
$ b, H/ V) f, A! g; m
7 q& ~6 ~7 ~- m$ U# `) GP0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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