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[lastpost] => 2344055 【天策2020双旦嘉年华】,万元大金矿,联合【众鑫娱乐】寻找挖金手(开奖帖) 1610638563 女人爱足球
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澳门博彩业未来一段长时间将维持现有的“3+3”模式,ZF严控规模扩张。对于ZF干预市场的理据,澳门大学博彩研究所所长冯家超认为,博彩业无法如其他行业般可以靠自由市场调节。尤其08年的一些数据已经反映到,博彩市场的市场调节机制已经失灵。
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- k5 s5 [# x9 v+ _ 但限制赌台及不再发牌的做法,澳门市场仍无先例可循,可引用的只是04年金沙开幕至今三年多的数据,故当局需做详细调查,小心分析、确定。
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冯家超说,今年博彩市场的变化给予社会一个很大的启发。首先是赌台数目变化,首季澳门赌台数量净减少64张,发出的信息应是“市场饱和”。但却非所有博彩企业都朝这一趋势而行,即部分娱乐城减少赌台,但也有娱乐城未有削减。他形容这是一个非常特殊的状况。
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! ~/ Z% `2 U4 w 根据ZF公布,首季减赌台的博彩企业包括威尼斯人(减66张)、永利(减20张)、美高梅金殿超濠(减18张)、银河娱乐(减10张),合计减少114张。增加赌台的包括澳BO(加48张)、新濠博亚(加2张)。
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& C. U) D' v2 t. M5 h5 S 对应市场调节失灵的问题,冯家超认为,ZF除了出手监控规划,应乘这段时期加强与博彩企业沟通,令博企更清楚ZF意向,加快产业多元化发展步伐。6 l6 F4 e" I o6 W5 s" |4 u; t
( Y v) b: r6 X7 K$ E4 D 冯家超表示,不同博企增减赌台取向不同,与持牌博企开设娱乐城的模式有关。如与酒店合作开设赌厅。彼此受合约约束,酒店本身不具备自主性,无法做到“进可攻、退可守”的自由市场操作;若重新调整合作,需要再申请,是否容易获批又是一个问题。
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# S2 U! D" W- s' Z8 C! A 除了合作模式,博企减少赌台的行为亦不排除是市场策略,如有心向市场发出饱和的信息,令竞争者却步。但从合作关系角度分析,自由市场的调节机制已经失灵。
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9 v0 V1 ]+ I8 e6 _# Y 中介人佣金不断攀升,侵蚀娱乐城利润,亦是市场调节失灵的表现。现时贵宾厅“杀率”(即赌台收入比率)一般介乎2.7-3%。以3%计算,40%即约1.2%为税项,余下为博企收入。贵宾厅为提升竞争力,拉高回佣至1.3%,即博企利润仅为0.5%。故对于博彩营运商,1.3%回佣率已经接近底线,而如今转码佣却见高至1.35%,甚至1.4%。虽然利润偏低,几乎无利可图,但首季贵宾厅整体收益仍然高逾70%,显然非正常市场行为。
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对于博企,扣除总收入39%作为博彩税交ZF,50%支付转码佣,实际利润只有11%。但博彩项目多投资高昂,如此低的回报不成比例之余,亦影响博企累积资金,最终影响博企的再投资和多元化经营。- c. i2 E) h6 K, E& O
" D# C1 Y* v5 i+ j3 I! S 除了经营成本高,贵宾厅的社会成本亦很高,最终会由澳门社会承担,故本地博彩业最起码要承受社会压力和制约,然而目前情况显然并非如此。; t2 r$ {' G2 d8 T2 r% ?
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参考拉斯维加斯的操作,尽管博彩产生的社会成本或由其他州所承担,但拉城与其他州毕竟在同一个国家、同一个体制下,即拉城博彩的发展最终会受到其他州的制约及压力。但澳门这方面的制约并不大。5 ^) p# ?5 d- b. c/ q+ B5 Q6 D
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事实上,澳门市场亦做不到自由市场的“你死我活”竞争环境。如在拉城,企业只要符合一定资本条件,通过背景审查,便可落户经营,市场上“一鸡死一鸡鸣”。但澳门只规范持牌博企数目,与拉城完全两样。故澳门博彩业单靠自由市场调节,难以磨合。
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