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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 3 B1 E6 a+ j( R% D& U7 m
# a/ f/ Y y3 Y3 a1 {2 ?其实原文标题不是这样的
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!# T0 P5 _' t( |% H, c
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# Y. F% _) H6 h+ p( m9 u
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...; [) U1 v; ]2 T5 r
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
( C+ l! Y$ n. b# |4 |5 M+ s3 g4 V, B" N; D+ H
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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( p f7 I/ x% s3 t j& D$ Z 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」: B& O0 u- B9 M8 X: t
: l8 r: v6 H1 \, e' |: D* E+ r「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
1 Y9 @: P8 x% [4 y; C, f「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
7 n* _* O$ j( c, i/ h# E7 c8 [# M( X5 ? h
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。- A1 ?* y8 u' x ?) W% i9 F- v9 }9 s
/ X7 I- L8 O8 C. t7 ^
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
4 x* T) z" x9 H* L9 v因此铜板较容易出现正面。
! v# K/ y. m! v, J ~. V9 i长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 / Q1 b% X! B; o4 m; r; a& [9 W
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
3 N& ]2 y% ?8 ?& I/ X$ h心想赢定了。0 c4 G! c3 c$ e+ Y' ?! I' J7 |
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，4 m4 x8 ^% W R3 |
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」% H! ^6 e% D3 y" D# \) a' R) z
, V1 J1 X" `0 a% ~6 U* y赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
7 U, |; c1 B o$ ?但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
* g' R2 R* t, m0 @, g) I , D: W, Y( j8 q4 S; Z: ^" i
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
2 \. Z* |" F# _( x) Q他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 / o* P. ^4 R+ E# ]
上帝回答道： A1 p7 I1 ]. J1 x9 @& {
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」% T7 _6 D# Z E b ~% f
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」3 F C- y9 b( x7 ~) M
「而不是先发生在我身上。」, I M3 R+ i. j5 q9 f+ e$ a% I
( I( x$ b& h; b
赌徒恍然大悟，$ K5 w" | ~! F$ s" ^2 X
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
$ n/ x y' {) {$ Z0 o竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！8 N/ p( M4 T6 m4 X+ L
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」& f8 `1 X: ]; `
上帝说完便不见踪影。 3 Z+ C* {8 _& S# Y( U9 c
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
( n: f- c$ W* r$ ?6 M. S/ N若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，6 y- J# Y! N6 q b
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，' n8 [2 F# t/ L" w1 H* ^3 S! A
对赌徒十分有利。
_( o1 o# a8 Z
0 c: J5 J/ y7 g但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
" T" H) ~' N9 N( s在还没掷到1000次之前，
# s5 J# w+ r: M仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
( c3 @8 W* h: |, S+ N1 T# _3 o. C8 G2 `$ B ]0 }" C
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。6 u9 A0 @0 y6 m! h# y8 J
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。# N4 P8 y3 L* X) |# }& T% ~
$ A# r1 W1 |- E* R+ M1 N& E 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
$ r( S. N2 C6 R9 } k7 o% {6 i
' V: W4 K% j" G9 [& y 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ + i2 w. o3 ?0 T& [; f4 P2 L
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