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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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其实原文标题不是这样的* p4 f9 N. e' d# R' n+ \
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!) }( i9 d( `2 e& Q5 m
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝..., H: E4 d- z+ E- q- b
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」 A$ ^5 x6 r; E# p r+ ?3 f# S
% N) D9 x$ P' J: ]: J6 k. a/ K
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 + `' Z% S% o! j o% R( c) N
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」$ w c- _/ D, M- G& X
+ h" ~: k' K4 j
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。, U3 K* c, [% ~
# Q" B4 B1 N9 `4 F G* @# _" s! U接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
( n0 }9 e* ~! p, _! V/ w. B) x因此铜板较容易出现正面。& m2 F+ b. r! u, A& f+ R& R
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
" ]9 F$ x2 Q# V# o因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
4 o4 M# @" X8 N1 y心想赢定了。
$ G6 K( j" P$ r1 g( H9 p! f& D+ A' o
$ t" F, g$ {, n8 o- l& X没想到开始不到半刻钟，
; b6 q: ~/ b. I, z* x赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」/ V; W' O/ S/ |. L$ d, e* h2 \
: t0 b" \1 u6 h, _赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，$ u: p! b/ p" r
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
, t2 h! @% o1 x$ o; a他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 & I7 A& y* Q3 X& K; ^9 E
上帝回答道：, T9 Y: X0 t. q" o
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」! D* g" D @$ X K( W$ @- `
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
6 Z/ W- V Y0 p$ w- Z q/ M「而不是先发生在我身上。」8 P& N: d' a3 ]' X, m
, N' e' Q5 E _! I) ]- ], a 赌徒恍然大悟，
7 o9 v. i6 s) o* D原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
# G2 n4 |% b1 s0 K1 @竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
, c- x7 x: M* j「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」5 i" H7 K1 R+ k* R q
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
* ? }( o5 h3 S若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，1 |/ f7 | p& G5 `1 J
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
/ M) I- F$ A8 A4 D/ O9 \/ X- b- H" o. y对赌徒十分有利。
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, q7 }2 S- e" ~/ b# o5 j但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，6 r; R8 A3 q6 N! R1 h" y
在还没掷到1000次之前，) w5 a; V2 r7 d) D
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
% X( q: s; i H( X, r ?9 b( O0 R# _3 s+ |9 W0 Q$ ` Y9 ?! e- }0 C& T
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
! v; y' P6 X& U1 O/ v7 S7 \$ G) \# K# ~
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。0 m9 p! L# D3 u9 a/ R, ?5 Y8 N. T$ E
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，; A% x. x3 _5 M( }
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 6 t! c" b* Y5 s
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