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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
4 E( q6 [: R1 Z! D3 |$ O! j* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
3 {- Z% k1 i3 L5 c- n凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
6 w. e7 d; U4 _% t' N+ ?# h% D
8 S# n+ ~/ |$ a8 W3 @G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)! ~$ X* E# _) d4 k& z5 \: q
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
7 \% s( d1 s5 ]+ y" D! N# q+ O/ j* {+ X$ G0 j7 s- @
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h j$ F0 ^. m4 o2 t
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ : N0 [' |* w9 ^
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s. N" {& o/ C% {
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `7 y$ q- I0 q% _# r5 q' `- u
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d1 T. |2 D5 n% _) b/ W
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
! Z; `; q2 @2 M9 z3 @7 L2 {6 W( b' o7 \
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 + G1 X4 r3 V( t7 j: M0 l
0 u, n7 x" F p- \7 [7 S(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
' v5 r2 Y- A$ S$ j- y% q0 p( `& C W1 w
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
* V! | \; K7 P! O* k0 Z( w- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _- X; [3 e p/ m1 G; y% `/ _* O+ d
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 # z2 d4 T2 b4 x
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c. `) ]7 g6 ]7 j& t n
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 . F, v7 k- o* r
0 ^0 e7 z- j; \' t3 gS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 / u+ }- Q0 w. y6 K# b; b# N/ U% b
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
% |/ @/ Z4 `* N8 v; X6 ?S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 9 }9 |' k* {6 [2 A# Z6 I
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
5 X% k: @, c d' w2 T0 cS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
7 }+ ]& d1 k- {1 f; |4 m2 c8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
; K* B( a0 K4 U& _1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 + X ]$ z5 K9 I( ` g
" O6 n; q l/ S2 g1 E1 k. w# @! q
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l* B$ @: f, d* m$ w/ g7 D
: E* H; U( Z" J9 Y7 V k4 k( F. p2 t |
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q: h) p+ ^, q3 _* y* q: V. ^9 b
& t+ H* Y6 b) W$ m+ Q+ n
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 5 {9 V+ h3 w$ I" b+ F% f: l2 s
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r' `. \' W r! U' q5 M4 t% A2 _9 B
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T8 b7 b$ w% `& r' m) F @; e
1 ?- q# E* [$ a0 z: {
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j9 _1 E' u. y5 u$ [4 K8 }5 o9 a3 E
7 z4 q# H6 v. A! |' ]2 }S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
4 E" ~, ^6 U: b' H: R- f* w9 p1 g2 R: z# q: ~
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s: V' d0 v% C# E' W% q
; m' V% T, u, P% O6 y: W1 l! {) |6 _( s2 s( l3 D
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ( z0 Y/ o0 h' E, h: Z5 S3 B
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
( ?. O. k H8 u) [! n2 Z9 ^S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 & V; ^4 ~! ]$ P) F+ b
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~; X* Z5 U% C, \: C* Y3 E3 K
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o& G# _5 S" B. @1 B3 T: N
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \+ ]) c5 A0 |6 R8 `' f6 E+ ^/ r; e
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 - `& ?$ v/ U9 A* o# }% N
) q( ], k9 L T& t `+ |# L; Z4 K( T( Q
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 / s! Y% @# z3 W* `7 L2 L8 p1 O
2 A% R( ?, `9 XF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 - A V# B& P1 x) k. |
# U1 c$ Q/ }% t( q于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?& t2 t% D& f( ^8 _0 q% c R
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
* y7 g C1 w4 v' r$ E: wG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M0 X1 b& {9 x# g! _
+ D$ n) P# X# M
+ g, e: w7 V3 F" _5 |4 C7 W# R5 d) t" n1 KG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 8 u k& o" ] `2 s* t) q# p% f
' B5 `5 C, U" d# Y
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]) C }& ~4 l+ J3 q1 j
1 [: f& w# Q$ d- @4 Q7 I
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
' H1 `7 z3 d1 t( {: q- D8 |6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i& v! B5 M; A$ [# n+ l# F! z( f2 h
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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