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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
* M1 x* z9 m) L4 ]( S6 Q* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c/ a: Y( s6 u- L1 S/ A& A
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
) H* Z9 p0 }$ r) q
9 e) f: ^8 n( F! ?G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)0 w" E5 W& c7 {' e) ]" s
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
! K- N* |; \# O- d
' f' R1 ]9 M+ b& Y9 z& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h0 [6 \- |. L4 n3 a+ ]2 ~' v
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 5 G9 g, @1 ]$ K% x, t* a
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s3 f0 L8 Z7 S4 ^* J$ S7 z$ O2 }% U. P
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `/ q4 ~. y# Y3 ?1 w
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
# p: d+ P- |" G! v$ c(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n9 a, A% `, H5 I2 N# z
8 S1 `% A. @* T) @- y3 h
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 6 K: v( [3 a% F' ?1 U8 |0 @
3 n; l0 F; U, }% v
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
1 W) I% ^' q8 X% c( t/ x6 k
7 C1 G4 l8 \* R V6 ^, _: W+ ](4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 - F% M- h/ K5 q
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _4 ~8 R5 Y; Q# n( M/ ]# _1 K& M7 @
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 & k& u. t+ w9 l$ A: l' R9 _. c$ \
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
" Q' a* m6 Y8 VS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
& W* m! D9 m2 K5 F, ^0 D. [
& Y6 i5 u8 K: E Q$ g% ]- RS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ \6 [- I5 Z( N+ X. O% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s! M" _5 S5 p W9 ? m% r) s
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
: t# V/ `4 F; _% J) W/ y# @/ p& v9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
# B% {# p& N4 ~" A+ sS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \4 h* f* _( H* L8 O; \' |+ P7 S
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
. q" n) D5 p. E& w4 T2 }1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 - N1 \0 \2 p7 x* y: i e0 ?# {' Y
! ~8 D0 q/ O4 n2 F) O: ?2 [. E
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l: ]& u# G3 U8 P7 w V7 U+ r
- h) p$ J! n3 m& p1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q4 F3 J2 X& {' T
/ ?9 w: l: z# M8 O2 z
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
0 P: P9 z# Z$ Q& I: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
" p3 k# v* F4 l+ p d$ t( |$ ?5 K# aS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T6 k. I Z w8 D4 O$ O5 V. u K
9 g- d9 C$ C' r% M) t. j
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ; i8 H0 x7 N2 E* g6 r; B
2 R& p x3 q, kS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
+ x* a5 d Q$ H: Z' ? T& ^; m' V% T, u, P% O
, y3 a! S- E! k" A3 xS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ' v( l5 e$ q2 r9 W
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a l( x/ c. h* z* G! t D! A
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
6 A( r% z% Y0 y6 p1 u G, K4 ?& A: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
# V; Z9 R8 G2 j(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
' V* U" C) n% l( f5 a6 f1 d* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
: v+ o* `5 q3 j' D; w$ J; [好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 i0 d& S, v/ O+ i% Y
) q( ], k9 L T& t5 A1 d! X; B9 i! o; u S; p2 c
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
0 g; \) @& B1 d5 i( h& n( R9 e% q
4 m9 X" Q5 d8 R( SF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
7 Y; R i6 Z. _
( [4 ^; n: r; U' ?& k: @( B# G: D于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
) J, D2 b5 \# |- ]9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
& k. l6 P" s9 r8 F: R0 ZG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M4 j8 W! {8 S8 Y% h6 x4 m' t
+ D$ n) P# X# M
6 i/ s) d3 \1 R" sG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
+ p a" z8 ]3 F6 n8 b- u
% x/ r! y$ S7 XG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
3 N6 f! z7 m" x% B' T4 z7 d ^0 S' F
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
9 W1 O/ C0 I4 \( p0 b# O6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
/ x1 ]/ Q$ P; E/ l+ [通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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