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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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0 M$ V0 L9 Z+ K只跟踪一个联赛1 O! }: e  Y" m1 ?
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/ v' v0 F6 T# w" T- }全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔5 \7 s! h) j) h

6 x- N/ }' Y+ l: o三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，3 T- W* ~6 H" i7 P
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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6 D8 I8 |2 j0 l+ I& F+ a/ v方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
3 N1 s. F( M2 ?+ x$ ?: x2 m6 b1 i7 T# ~4 C& j6 L
就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱) |$ F$ u; J+ i) k( ~- J2 o

" K/ S6 p/ I' i0 k5 Z, X* U当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目4 P6 @4 U3 j# z% @& I+ {. J
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，" W/ o5 |) z% e, T) S8 C* n0 m
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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) {! F7 ~4 z* S但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。2 I4 h% o* w. D, r; @1 z2 j

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" h5 v$ @2 G- c( R+ u% z5 l0 `理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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* N+ @1 D) N0 @4 \. i1 |但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，1 Z3 d& d+ ]; O# M, B" F' [% v
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这比买国债存银行合算。1 M% S/ j* i8 x7 J
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
6 ]% u& K2 Z& c4 g1 _4 ^
: K: @3 z2 O% x/ R* K几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。1 F. Y7 a! d  t1 V9 F* ]# w. w
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! ?# N0 Z' I% u- M5 e! b常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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5 ~$ V/ c% ~6 J9 D0 n+ E放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，6 g# K9 T- _' I+ g( ~8 s

3 [) _2 [; m6 B2 w% A就是回避了大的亏损，4 D1 b& D  u: u8 a9 Z7 X$ h
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，% W+ S- s5 L9 n( {/ e$ e% E* H4 c. `

& [* H0 g7 y: m9 v7 j7 O0 [4 w. j回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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