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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 4 T8 _, p5 V1 i7 y, W9 ~3 a
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$ @" h9 m+ ]  N9 h只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔, o9 p) O# U0 }& q* H% y

" T0 L& Z# F* X6 Z; Z! ?3 U2 Y- Y三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。$ Z6 S4 T3 @5 g/ Q

' e3 t2 s3 E* s/ y7 W8 o方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）  \, C9 g" N  l' J7 l+ b

- i' Z' ]( A! M/ L' Z: _  l* a然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，! ?# t, w2 F$ E
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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5 m9 T& R/ F$ x, B8 \亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，* \0 S1 b8 M6 M
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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  S2 E" y( p/ a) h但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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7 f5 a) _0 l3 |% U' Q& Q6 P* K' v4 ~: c7 H) X. h5 B
理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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9 ?  d0 O; d+ u5 E  p8 [* C排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，" \* Y; o0 X* [3 B9 t( o
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，/ P5 A8 R0 `7 m/ g. P1 C

" s3 L! r+ b4 ]这比买国债存银行合算。* s! r  Q) q3 a+ Q5 x9 Q. O
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，8 k# K: \& s6 W0 U% W8 j
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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& X+ {: \) b% D) U) G. b" q1 D2 `, S1 y  R8 m
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
& r; g; E) _" Q- ]1 P( m3 A! n5 O( a2 A2 m9 N
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，- N, }8 Y( E' ?7 J: w
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就是回避了大的亏损，
1 g4 b8 |+ ^. I7 F% q* a' s8 U" i" M" L, g6 M5 E  ~" k
大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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5 I% N4 h5 x2 d. O9 J% `回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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