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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ' u3 Y) d2 p/ r$ U: O

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只跟踪一个联赛' v8 `2 w2 J$ k% N8 g5 n

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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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# m' [9 B% E+ z7 {* l三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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4 W6 G# I. M; f" S; V4 h6 S偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。# v8 o, {# G  L! `) U

) c- Z8 E  n# Z7 }0 t方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，( r! l! l9 Q5 n  I" _2 x

/ B$ Z1 @& x4 j就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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, Y/ F  V- l* n  U6 J2 q7 R当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，: |& a6 w; _" y0 s

: o) s. T6 p+ |' x# O, y而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
4 ^3 v, P* j! v% I$ O  p0 R/ K& @# v  Y4 Y3 t, U! U
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，3 z% u& l5 N; }. g8 ?

( v! R( K4 ~' W4 a" \, o但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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" v0 Y. W4 z' a! d这比买国债存银行合算。& C# G" U; Y4 h' T

+ P" k3 o. t& X! q在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，+ t- c8 n, m6 o3 \7 X& i- F

- k0 ^0 l7 Y, O9 p1 h几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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7 x2 q3 D/ y" p就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
; C2 m; L$ O8 T
6 |/ ?3 G  ^- V6 D7 {* e回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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