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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 & [/ J1 ?) k& l$ c

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只跟踪一个联赛
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( p" e6 q4 Q/ c2 b. r0 o, H0 |全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔* s* q0 v, g' y3 [
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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; }- Y, y' o  L* M6 B; Z* M偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。; \8 \2 a2 w% ^+ y' R$ O3 c. u

4 ?$ \' Z* c+ ~% K8 x方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）- z) g9 R' t5 k9 z6 s4 G
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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) E/ n' q( Y0 r就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱1 E; j( [- ^- o; S7 Q  i) w

$ J: I1 y' Q3 S( V8 u. T3 _3 C当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目; l8 M7 M$ E+ ^1 D

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，  @9 M2 F4 m- e) x& ^, R6 {

+ z! K3 C9 W5 e' _( F而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，# h1 k  M  N: u. G$ j
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。# o- L. W1 M* r; d3 [

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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0 ~) z7 a$ O! n8 z" W% y排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，# G8 r6 ]- I& B; j/ _1 w: _# G) v
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，8 m, m# Q$ `. @; v

$ \6 D5 `. N# S0 D这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。/ W8 V( X7 d2 l4 u

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。+ @+ u! D7 f7 U9 Z/ u/ W  `

9 s( N) `! O/ ?2 X" H$ L放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，) D  U# J& j- j$ n2 b

$ }, ]  A: |) b- G$ ?9 h就是回避了大的亏损，. M1 X5 Q+ E7 h3 W

! A8 q1 q: R, I. u# o/ N6 w$ G" ]大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，. E( ^& V* ?+ P7 D  R3 X9 R- Q
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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