×
Array
(
[fid] => 6903
[description] => 汇聚千万菠菜人经过无数次摸爬滚打总结出的原创经验打法,更是菠菜高手纯粹交流殿堂。
[password] =>
[icon] => 27/common_6903_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[716] => 版块公告
[1510] => 打法练习
[1511] => 打法交流
[1659] => 入驻合作
[1745] => 提现流水
)
[icons] => Array
(
[716] =>
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[716] => 1
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 31 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 理论实战大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 4
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 15129
[posts] => 518062
[todayposts] => 7
[yesterdayposts] => 26
[rank] => 7
[oldrank] => 7
[lastpost] => 2650249 【吉祥坊】5月15日投注流水49430元(单日流水) 1715876104 一帆风顺发
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 0
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 1
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 8
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 4
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1051 小时
本月在线: 4 小时
|
|
有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?$ S1 k3 N" W" M% F+ v' i6 z' {
4 e, F3 I& t/ I; N3 L& z3 P会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。/ N0 j) a$ x/ U: x' ?, w8 w2 x9 ?
. e9 B, q: }$ i& L& d其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!, R' a f* v4 F- h
" Y+ R, L/ y0 S
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
- d2 p! v, M/ G T: c# }0 ^* h5 o
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。+ T+ ^6 X5 b& f! z9 ?3 a
^0 ^# o3 s) _7 Y7 q7 V5 Z9 f1 l& G答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!- @' Z( V5 }: t% H
5 A( _% r/ ]" {$ X3 I& J7 Z
例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
# I5 k4 T( z' G$ p
3 q& m6 c5 w4 }现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
7 X" K& z" }6 y. f4 {6 _
' m1 B4 b6 y" z! `" t6 b' E$ m. U我们先来看一个0和的游戏。8 c' A9 B3 ]# M# o. z/ v- a
, v: l. S6 L. U8 c6 d) }1 c" G玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!' R8 J' ?5 g( z+ L/ Q6 Q+ r/ o
; M! K9 c' ~; ~' V1 k- ~
玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
' B$ a# j4 Z- y6 u \$ B+ H; S; p6 |% T4 u
这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
( R3 N( M( w0 h3 Y# v& ?
/ `( m4 w7 y3 `- K4 k接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
) ^( o: r& a9 q' P$ Q) v6 `+ A
4 p c2 @/ B, \7 X玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。9 p" e) I+ `8 N( S) S0 ^* |, L
- E% B" u7 N) v& y* t再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。$ K& P$ y: C; w, ^. e- L
( D e5 Z! Q, M如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。. a a, p. m7 o7 A
4 F) o$ @* v9 r3 F! k5 S但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。8 x- {, a, R* G h' b; @
; U6 a" R) k7 h8 [; f下注比例 本金结果) B. r6 [$ n( N% m8 n2 F
5 `9 e# r% |; f! g0.1% 1.0019027 d. e1 m/ Y' ]5 g" N
- t! u! w, P# j6 W8 ]0.2% 1.003606
5 i3 [4 a9 @" r# a$ N6 Q
' G- O3 k9 b, V3 o, @' \0.3% 1.0051135 u8 F+ | K" }8 a* t2 D t
% d& g, U9 {9 \8 _4 j
0.4% 1.006421
( c" l L8 ~" s+ X+ D9 `
8 d6 ]5 z7 p0 U# d5 d& p0.5% 1.007528
, E: ~- z m3 u' Y
& c: u: w5 v# p+ b% \6 @1 K0.6% 1.008435
1 V, p6 X4 b/ L5 k4 }
1 w! F2 t" z+ W% J0.7% 1.009142; Q& b! W+ w% H& S, k* O2 X+ ]
) H2 W" \# `* t0.8% 1.009646
! d+ _$ C! o7 H& s
& m% `/ k7 o- @0 }4 @0.9% 1.009949
: O( q: z! o7 s6 d1 k7 C. [, X. d7 k6 e% h' |1 Q
1.0% 1.010058 b' l r) V4 w8 j, p2 k2 N* i& ^7 m' e
4 D- j, e( N& e1.1% 1.009949
) \9 `( P! A) A- ]
1 a- \# P9 x8 }4 h1.2% 1.009646# K3 ?% [& ~5 f" ]- Y5 ]8 u
6 w, X6 ]! ^. B Z0 w/ s1.3% 1.009142" P! _. M2 N! A
) c3 e: F! L! l+ s0 a$ Q" C1.4% 1.008435% }' O p, w9 J H$ E
) _: a/ g1 T7 h, ?' [2 Q% \1 o; d1.5% 1.007528" z! ?, g8 T# q
8 W" c. X4 N+ z' i3 O) b( t+ j: e1.6% 1.00642
' a: ~. }* r7 i9 j, d2 z* ` I" k8 r" m0 I$ n, {( v2 f
1.7% 1.005112
- ]9 E: _5 Q) @- r: B3 q* z* m, m1 ?. ^& w! o# k9 b
1.8% 1.003605
% n8 h- C7 [3 o
- U: E# W2 d. X5 Y: V; `1.9% 1.0019
* w& B" E8 y/ h. n ~0 i$ q6 n4 L/ e- y
3 {) M. P1 R* R- w! N2.0% 0.9999972 ^4 y! H5 `" W5 b9 N0 ]& [
# ?; U1 Q, b6 ]3 z2 J$ A1 a
2.1% 0.997899
3 L9 Z) i0 m3 R0 k
! o7 }& V. E! h- X2.2% 0.995605. k, H' P6 J Z0 h# C- L) B% I
) F: @' Y" a+ s: ?- E4 v
2.3% 0.993118
' e* j. H; k( c3 f3 F8 ^6 `( h( A3 C* Q' d' Y
2.4% 0.990439
: M1 ^) G0 `( |: S' ~1 ~+ M) Q
' Z0 }( d# ^7 V7 j9 k/ ^+ w2.5% 0.987569; {1 m' b% g- h/ | w
: B6 k1 j+ V" q1 n2.6% 0.984513 _; E% }7 A2 F/ b) C
# s y0 a- U$ I! x
2.7% 0.981264+ M- W2 E; }: g; ]% \5 o/ v" q
) `2 U- Q; j; l% W! r) g
2.8% 0.977833
; F+ C! C) x9 M1 [- m
( W4 o' |7 E6 y& G: V2.9% 0.9742197 j1 v+ |" D J. B e
) t e( X0 I0 h4 {$ }3 \8 _3.0% 0.970424
9 Q) _4 ?' Q, V- S9 ^1 A* ]8 i/ I d( v" a0 k( G6 H
从上表可以得到一些结论:
' C2 M9 Q7 v4 F* D
& k- N' @+ k1 ]. l. x1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
8 [! _" g. a% F+ @1 G( @4 ^
0 B& j3 M! x! v( B3 h8 L2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!5 Y/ ]& K6 A, k/ t# ~5 Y
9 }; Q# a9 | t; f3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
0 r4 Z9 |1 e! M6 ?9 @7 G( N1 Y" m# I, w+ b7 j
凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...7 |! t1 ]; V0 z0 d
: h# F: v' z: u9 m! ]( D, K' U
然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。6 w# u2 b& M# H4 K* L& I8 z
5 B8 v- `; w# Y% C
以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
. _4 K/ R* b8 n& W* O: T
; |+ t; y& X/ ^/ W |
|
|
|
|
|
|