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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?8 F, t2 x) _, m9 r
5 c! I7 Q; n( @会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。2 Y q" x/ s- O$ [6 r
. m4 X" `% H O) y6 Z) ^其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
* b( H% |+ ?0 |. `. X0 T* e0 r
5 P& ^3 ^/ d& W9 c8 @; I首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?7 h5 K! G: M5 P* n. {4 S4 V
& t0 N' g. `1 b8 I8 T$ u1 X
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。) A3 N W3 c+ u6 o3 Y- h) ^8 b
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。: i. i* B' U, ?, [% G6 T
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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: R. N. M: G1 J! F l玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!* p- T7 C& G9 A3 m1 f. B
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。; E! [* S) T& R
: z3 w3 z$ ?( M/ Y0 m1 r接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?3 x" {9 ] h1 I% T# l
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。: }% K# k; ]5 s
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。3 s0 d, {4 v& i+ U
! K6 o) {2 S% P, C5 w$ x8 b" F如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。+ O- S* D2 d2 W, o8 F
4 p. }7 V' c# R! l# w- a$ h; `但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
9 L" `# m& I* M5 \
" ~- w$ ?* I$ X2 s. ~下注比例 本金结果! l8 ~6 f5 C: V3 C9 F
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0.1% 1.001902
' g6 |3 U0 [- ]% g
& D2 C* q/ t/ B& I0.2% 1.003606* n+ W& r. p5 w
: {2 e7 A: ]$ j; `+ S2 O
0.3% 1.005113
# ~; @8 g- d$ B# Q8 `! F* L% T' ~6 f( P. O1 Z, O2 _& g
0.4% 1.006421
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0.5% 1.0075283 z0 {6 j' B* ~
' i, d% s" K- M" y) R7 ^% E$ q3 l5 y
0.6% 1.008435- X- r( ?( B" f7 `8 l3 e
* X3 J! [1 l# j+ M7 R* p
0.7% 1.009142
( A3 d6 ?$ y( q6 r" z+ Y; W( |: W* m7 p% _* @, r
0.8% 1.009646; i b' b7 i% t
9 L% O- _1 e- D
0.9% 1.0099494 x2 f; v; E" O+ w( T
( Z d3 W, C: s4 u% W/ t- d+ m1.0% 1.01005
+ s1 c" H# p# {
4 u! A0 n b4 B; ]7 }1.1% 1.009949
/ a5 t$ B% @0 l) F& c+ w2 y/ R4 a9 t1 ?) z( V$ Z# _7 q
1.2% 1.009646
" ~& f6 Y- l+ P2 u% M4 R4 Y5 M Y9 [1 p1 R+ L
1.3% 1.009142; |: X8 H: m9 {) Z9 }0 h
, d4 i( S2 Q( J+ b% O" p, R! F1.4% 1.008435
& I# m- `0 I; {8 o: w- G' v6 ~/ r5 R4 F! U4 }3 _+ l7 c6 K
1.5% 1.0075284 Q. _- O+ ~# ]% J
I1 ?* R$ F/ v
1.6% 1.00642& s: {. `/ q6 T
3 G, r* G- {4 q+ w1 O1 K
1.7% 1.005112$ \% w) D6 p# Y& E1 V+ E9 v- A, y
3 o1 ~# m) E" A, a* [1.8% 1.003605- r' N5 B4 b) c9 T8 o9 l
p8 u5 v" F/ G# x5 `' E" w0 I1.9% 1.0019
. {6 Y% ^' @8 C4 q3 P Q! h0 e( r$ n4 t+ {& P) }
2.0% 0.999997
2 z' r& {2 H; e3 f! \9 C1 c* n
1 b! x2 S" L! s" Q, O& |$ K- |2.1% 0.997899
' [8 E; v4 _' j5 C4 `- F
' R. Y9 ]$ P7 S" `* N* S8 `2.2% 0.995605, n4 D/ L0 |) ~+ @* Y+ v7 [ g
6 U# E3 w( F' R2.3% 0.993118$ _ A0 a3 m0 a1 Q \5 ~1 J$ c
9 q9 u( d& w) X; j l2 z2.4% 0.990439
/ E! B; }, J, }+ u- A- w5 R
, C0 P- T% ^( H2.5% 0.987569
$ U" V$ k4 r% R% @: K/ [1 k% k+ [' \; k+ D9 p* i$ a6 g; y
2.6% 0.984519 Z# d) y% l8 L# J
' x! @3 z3 [& ]1 M! u" G% H2 `
2.7% 0.981264 I8 d2 y% S1 z; V( {- o
z. y6 M9 K" k2 e( w2.8% 0.977833
. L7 s% ]3 Z3 `, b ]6 a2 C4 p( e% x% j/ I' w) A
2.9% 0.974219& c5 x5 R" q: A1 Y5 h3 \( q) ?; f7 R
2 y% A% k9 @% ^" P( k0 o' Z3.0% 0.970424+ p- G# d8 N2 \5 D9 E7 \( S4 J
4 N; ?* Z O/ i/ F( r' @6 b8 I
从上表可以得到一些结论: B' z# f1 a u* o
- a4 n7 V/ P5 w, W+ ]2 |1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利, l' o2 V" g( [' H" U' G0 {
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
2 X& G, j& b, `3 @# ]. y3 x6 g
5 E1 S- T" q7 x6 }3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈1 ^' G* X3 u8 V6 b M" w
: Z4 \4 G s W凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...0 g: B% p0 A, N) ]+ {$ O
S5 ]/ @* ~8 b9 P7 e1 Z然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
+ E" N; @5 r' I5 \. E( L; J7 f3 x* Y& I* e; R4 y1 ~( S
以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。: A* q# |6 _' }" z* i
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