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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
1 \+ }( k+ w# B N$ m
; }6 z. x/ | w; e3 Q1 D会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
8 o" C; Q$ ^( }& a( u
. d! {2 i$ U" A* P1 j+ G其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
+ T; i: H+ }5 i& @5 w# v% ?
" \* G" M& Z! m# Q1 _$ H首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
& Z1 m6 s9 | b% @
0 I a' ^7 d1 |! @, T请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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3 ]# V- E" m3 z/ |! u: c答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!8 m$ W; i5 Q e6 n2 f( o) r9 b
5 e0 Y& k! b+ h3 [例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。 |# D6 k4 @1 Z& q4 i7 ^) v
5 }! ~1 V# ?, K, X+ t
现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
5 [+ j& z& ~: }5 V' T+ i
+ B/ m: ?3 O+ I D* E我们先来看一个0和的游戏。$ n0 k" S3 c) S; j7 b( y4 f9 d
# y2 x, o+ T) r" v- C( c
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!' j6 w" @: m% ?8 W: }
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。1 _, {( |5 ~& c) V, W
5 z: a5 f. M, w8 ]0 Z这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。$ y4 Y' \9 v9 N! ^
4 l% r3 Y4 {: P3 D- R% D" g
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
1 n# P" f; ?% m: ^) h8 N& n+ r& b* I" j7 l& ^ X+ z3 p
玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
: _9 z. X# J6 j' X
2 a5 \# h0 J# k9 F6 g2 B再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
( x4 K5 q D* _6 {' \- w3 V" m$ p/ b, m5 p% u+ L. i8 m/ k+ p/ p
如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。* m* g) R q# y7 _) t9 |
; l, t" J7 o/ K4 E4 I1 Z( [+ t+ e但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。, @( a+ I3 n0 X7 n3 a1 o T
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下注比例 本金结果
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# t- S6 y7 l3 Z- T( t, |0.1% 1.001902
1 \& I0 ^- f* m1 y n% r4 y
# Y- U7 J2 Y4 c/ t% C0.2% 1.003606 {! R3 V }1 S v5 ]. i
0 Y; b/ x7 g1 [# V9 K- S0.3% 1.005113 a# Y, R( K0 b0 f1 N
" O( M8 }' g6 X; [
0.4% 1.006421
6 Y* L9 z T% W
6 \# z2 K7 ]& x7 M& W0.5% 1.007528% S/ Y+ X9 { R
8 ]6 Z# A1 F- f
0.6% 1.008435
2 n, N9 N/ _; ]' U7 t- W) s( ~- z- c
5 w, M5 E8 ^; n" M8 u5 Q0.7% 1.009142
; p) j3 h: w# N/ G! K/ b$ ]6 y7 p. A2 p
0.8% 1.009646
+ c7 v1 c3 Z$ W7 U. [2 \
8 z3 h$ w# w+ X! Q- [0.9% 1.009949
5 c: o, A: t% i0 y2 T% e8 `
$ }& O! Q9 ~1 R& Y2 r5 T1.0% 1.01005
# [# W9 n2 h* U& A; I: \ p
% l) j/ e+ V" ?) W/ ]. l+ Z1.1% 1.0099496 N5 l$ ?1 @8 Z, ]# Z
2 `5 L2 Z t0 Y) ?" O7 {8 @5 Z% P$ L
1.2% 1.009646
+ }0 U7 _( G9 i p; K& s. k) [9 l: U ]& p8 P/ h/ ~9 s2 U
1.3% 1.009142
/ q! {3 b# t- ^/ m T' Q i6 p8 J+ N. x# n( [' q
1.4% 1.008435
/ t D" B! m8 o2 q1 c3 d( X
% I1 T S2 T3 U1.5% 1.007528
5 z7 M ^* G. Q2 K/ Z# s
! {4 ^2 w# m m/ n6 l9 h1.6% 1.00642
: t( N# V+ \# f9 B) Z( P$ f/ i7 C' e% j) o7 _ _" }; T
1.7% 1.005112
6 H) A9 q0 T' u0 O0 B* t$ g; J) I4 I8 w. W7 M' _' S) P
1.8% 1.003605
, U5 g2 Z: T7 {1 e5 U
& t6 V' M% h0 N6 D0 u, V7 ?- X1.9% 1.00199 Y% n' Z! q0 e& ?
! V' i. z" U' w# s8 |$ p; k2.0% 0.999997
3 i* G, }* k" B' ~
8 C9 z5 C6 r/ x. p* ^& o6 o9 B2.1% 0.997899
# N# T& W2 z1 _& `- p" ]
. X: E0 r' P$ Z9 |4 v: \6 J8 s( P ~2.2% 0.995605
% T t4 R/ o6 @* ~. h3 V8 _+ ?
. P5 W$ E) ?7 [( W( t" i, K3 ]2.3% 0.993118% N+ n' @ r, D0 Y* F
! Q8 N) u' P5 |
2.4% 0.990439
- w% ?: e- k8 V/ T. C0 h: F$ M& @, y$ A, e, J/ k% I+ s+ C& z2 T
2.5% 0.987569
( S: A" @0 D5 e8 Q: N. h2 ~# |6 J" j! r
2.6% 0.98451! f" V$ c4 [5 b* z& E$ Y9 a1 g
; k* K, W' F1 {1 N# X2 g2.7% 0.981264
; a# {" z3 N' S6 p1 a) K9 H
! A& j E6 j; V2.8% 0.977833& o6 M$ p; q6 u* R4 [
8 X* R3 t, P/ r* S L t) H# `% }
2.9% 0.974219
$ }% B6 s+ i( w5 q( X M
# ]# y" A0 {. {' a% g3.0% 0.970424# }; I; W2 {" l
- i0 }; L6 R' N0 [3 ]0 C+ j. x从上表可以得到一些结论:% k/ l3 F/ r- E: |; r! W
, S8 @5 B1 H& I# Y5 `3 h% Q1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利2 f* Y4 w |6 L( }/ V4 y6 {' y
" E% Y; N9 r# W# I( ]2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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. }3 r5 Q& r1 l. P! i! A3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...% h. f4 M. ?2 b
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。) f; e* _& E3 X& P2 v
4 m) ~9 Q$ K! {: u+ k" f- e以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。1 W. Y+ @! T1 t$ P
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