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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘3 @" G0 P. t' j/ [" I' ?0 J
9 ^0 n& w$ n7 m- u8 l0 Z. ? 平手中水,主队有利
[3 c9 d; k, u% E9 s6 X- `2 k* x+ h 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。+ Z G. T! K/ U/ U, V
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:+ [: O/ v! G' h# P+ i& }0 D E+ O
英超主队1 P( I1 V! [0 H
胜:13场 48%! V a" R$ \2 G. E, H& g" ?$ [, T9 t
平:5场 17%, D- f; B9 ?* Q
负:9场 35%0 S8 ^3 E$ K2 s2 h& ~
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
8 n% G- u/ J: c 4 l2 h7 K; q4 e O; b, ~) t6 g2 v
一、初盘阶段0 a- X, u" X+ E. F3 J1 `
具体到水位如下:; ^) W% W& o" `( y, P
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负% Z+ \/ k4 u/ K
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负9 E3 `( O6 M/ ]$ @
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
1 E$ `; p1 v- G4 b5 {, [7 `
. s J2 S( Z! ^4 E' _ 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。6 O( z3 y* Q0 }
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。- a, l U# ?, |2 _0 m7 \6 N
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
) a! `8 C9 W) X) ]
8 p, \3 T& d/ f9 f 二、临场阶段5 j ]7 K8 V) m: k
6 H, D/ Q4 q" Q @
具体到变盘和水位如下:$ G! J$ j" S/ S# D( o5 g
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负' A) ]' F {7 e5 d% z4 Z
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
6 U* m7 u/ L o( ? , ~8 T' f* |* A& @% W' \- Z/ U
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
6 J0 J+ v9 i# d6 f' [ F 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:5 x7 a7 P, V( [% @
@. ?+ X. I; B2 h5 s5 d1 X 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿3 ?; A" c& H$ @5 V
初盘:0.82平手1.04
3 B4 @4 U" R- T* b) L# {! s0 e4 \ 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85& M* @, y0 C. | P( I0 l
' k: C" ^+ { b 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆: f$ x9 j3 P/ g; H& A4 U- R6 d
初盘:0.76平手1.10
1 P3 h9 M& q! i 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.915 T7 C8 o; Q$ i6 W1 c' f
" e0 J! T; }5 ?' n$ w: f 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技" {$ e- A/ ~: i
初盘:0.82平手1.04
& {( L1 ~1 a4 o' O/ Y 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98 T+ W+ t; ?6 @1 v
* h; e$ B" n+ P3 M* U7 G. r i+ c
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
' ?, c2 _- S, _' Q5 S 初盘:0.88平手0.98
; Y+ c: N5 q" V+ G- u 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
- h: H" B m$ A- |' e. ?) g) R" A 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
) e/ G" k( W' U! o7 U j, k2 s 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。$ W) i# a$ d' w0 x. X9 o! D
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
$ Z. u5 s* _% d6 X! F/ a 9 [! \, z: c5 U& a3 Z
三、球队表现
. F6 I+ \, d! i5 i% H
4 C4 I( [) C; x; m/ G: }+ E 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
# ?% Z% a5 H' w: {4 U: _ $ ?9 X1 G% {) T, H5 \) O
四、投注要点
5 a' M' ?3 N5 R0 ]+ k, o: e 要点1:平手中水、主多不败# w, G% K& H- }
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
5 r! d" u; A" E! Q8 Y! h 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
# E- d6 N# E; N" _1 E# w 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大6 I7 [4 c2 M5 v j/ `& R
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
9 \5 q1 G* C$ M$ q K 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
- ^/ B! J: s E( I 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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