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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
0 R) o' i) Q% e0 P2 @& ` . U# @ z: U9 s6 P: W. T) D3 h1 x
平手中水,主队有利+ |# }. S# v& s' Q" h/ p
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。6 b j: H7 m4 |& {
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
! |5 C9 c2 L- U" D 英超主队
5 x" m0 m* V5 e9 Q 胜:13场 48%
, \' a3 @& b/ [6 `) ]. x 平:5场 17%
2 ]. L; Q9 J1 \6 {) n/ f* W" w2 Y 负:9场 35%
* s5 Y3 L4 o8 T' i1 l5 G" o7 _ 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
( _7 @& X) ~: x9 o* u$ l1 I ^
( X5 e: E' H' H, M- h 一、初盘阶段7 u# T" |' M1 m, X( z7 R( K b0 E
具体到水位如下:
8 \2 z. s% @9 M7 r. z, Z% s 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负/ k7 a) A8 F1 p: c$ ?
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
, c2 l/ t) m3 K3 H7 w4 _( ?# v 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负! R* @5 X3 b z; D
/ M6 Z t# v2 v9 _- g: O3 A
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
* a: n" b P! L* R 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
0 x" n3 w# r. Y6 x 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。- b: r0 ^+ f0 S* p
( y" \% p) F* d2 b' F, i- m 二、临场阶段
3 c; Q7 K* |' G$ F. s + q. c. r5 c: s! ]6 C9 _
具体到变盘和水位如下:; V+ r' A1 k/ d0 G$ w' e# i5 f f2 F
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" F6 J! j/ `# N( ^& ^% A# Y9 N
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负) b* ~3 H9 T) @/ j/ _* w: a+ R9 w
& x- @. I, f1 X9 P
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。$ u$ S6 | k7 a) E1 f8 h- i G
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:$ n* D3 ~4 u* O( Q& D
$ H/ n3 v- J/ F/ F
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
$ }/ c9 z5 T! d( }- k# { 初盘:0.82平手1.04( t5 `& ]5 B7 [, i' W& |$ O: p5 l& }5 f
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85/ M4 l' s3 K. y# k1 |4 o
7 a: n/ [0 n+ U9 a
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆 i: U" m! ]; t/ c* k
初盘:0.76平手1.10
( j' f3 W" |3 s# _ w& g/ O 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91( o3 }% J! p6 K5 K8 t( d; C
* j$ l: z2 T$ [ 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技# g3 z4 w1 b1 h% y
初盘:0.82平手1.04/ B2 t. F. k) S) z- E
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98) A M+ _' ^6 [1 i
) G* R. s# |$ m+ V% p0 _
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
7 S0 \7 k( }- }( y* U 初盘:0.88平手0.98* e1 g/ ^/ a" h& k* n
终盘:1.12平/半0.742 ?7 [$ T: r6 H [- ]- K
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。. [5 Q7 N7 a( z2 Z z' q' f: J+ N
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。0 ~- s5 N8 P+ @) t7 |- B9 B7 D
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
& ~; q# e8 Z( Q1 V , j4 O/ Y/ R8 r" v
三、球队表现5 a+ a8 _/ D. [9 ]8 A+ b( w: _
1 G; D4 L2 n7 @* c5 M
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
j9 |8 W g2 \! v# y- S
: y3 W6 c. V4 x9 B; u) l5 a 四、投注要点
0 r6 h) b4 K( f+ ~& e 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
; n4 j$ ?9 _+ z7 c 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
: V$ T m; w7 y8 u) m0 M$ L 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
. w. ~% k% u0 `" b, F1 C 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
5 M; i% A2 L) D$ y5 d5 K 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任0 A: m* Q, B0 }- C( k2 K
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大4 k4 f- c5 ^( }( N# L- `3 `
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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