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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 1 H- |3 n n7 H# l) M- Z+ J6 g
# E1 Q) J; J, U& ?3 }* h# W" X. @其实原文标题不是这样的, D9 u; i _5 ^) d; b `
9 S/ q, |! ]% P% t4 f8 ~8 _. O+ Z; `
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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G% h! D" ?$ ?7 }) j! L3 O! c
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝..." r, F5 ^' X7 s" h# }* q% ]
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。7 M3 y7 \ P3 v8 ^7 Y( C
5 q# s1 |' J D7 l$ B
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
+ t8 O6 K$ O; k/ ~) u
0 H! n" C# O/ v+ B 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」$ L9 P( I- {4 f3 J* w0 [! o4 j6 w
+ t1 K- s2 n" O* |% }& f, c
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
. R0 T& z; V; t* K: Z「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」4 q; H3 P5 X) W% ?0 l L
6 x8 f) x5 U. Z3 G5 S, Q1 E 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。+ o: k6 F4 x' _) a# N0 q! Q
5 R* b, Z( A$ @5 T/ r4 |2 d
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，0 z7 n9 C- T `9 e; r
因此铜板较容易出现正面。5 l6 o% P! u3 \
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ' v0 W9 W/ s8 v1 `$ C
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
. I2 S* T, n0 P; d心想赢定了。" N4 d, z* j' k+ E; z
$ N* k2 g5 u% }4 L) ^没想到开始不到半刻钟，6 j! s, C% g; K8 P/ {
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
" d5 e, C* f5 K3 ~: A - a1 V3 J2 x7 C
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，) U5 }0 ]; b7 q
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。) q8 G. ^& b; {8 E9 u. \, T U
3 X3 U: m; f7 ^, a$ |# A! i赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?: F! D) `/ ?% i0 R Q9 Q
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
( L) A+ ]& z. B# C) \% ~「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
2 y% k9 r4 E6 ]「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」0 U1 m) C( v7 H/ j% T* v. c
「而不是先发生在我身上。」" k8 ?7 W" d" o6 O# \' P" T; y
9 g, b4 k" x1 I
赌徒恍然大悟，
: l5 U) W5 O, x: r" J+ R原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，! g/ p Q, Y$ d+ H* u& t
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
, w: `( A6 Y1 P5 {「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」9 e1 h" D7 Y9 A7 Q8 v. e
上帝说完便不见踪影。
1 S: |3 J- N: H9 Q
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
* r0 x( v% \" J+ k若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，1 o4 }$ v3 @. P6 M( W: d
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
' Q6 \3 r4 f$ O* \! x! Z4 h5 f对赌徒十分有利。
/ y3 z; d. h; X: l3 q
, \- c* F6 ^: A( ?& k, ?但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
& S6 Y" t1 t( D2 |在还没掷到1000次之前，
2 R% J4 y' h2 v' {- k0 `- P7 j仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。9 n; P: d1 e j7 K7 O9 Z% u9 m2 X
/ y e4 C- v/ j9 o1 t' Y
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。% K2 k8 n" j( P. t' B6 H
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。. e' f+ |& L" Q0 F
% H. _6 b. C5 K8 V2 ` 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
7 x4 X2 C' {1 _5 |" i5 j# n; [8 a. Y% w+ W
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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