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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 1 ?2 S- _: w* e! a. w
5 o' H. r) a# j0 |其实原文标题不是这样的
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% f- l( t7 d6 `) ^( ]: e* X# n这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!! W" Z0 h7 @0 K- q3 I `5 {
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
" {3 O, [" @+ w- S他希望能和上帝来场赌局。' ?4 K+ V4 B, G, Y) h
; I; A" r& v! Q0 g- z, X0 K 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。# S0 ^; k) p* s! v. G
! v9 N2 N1 n" Q* n! _, W* y
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
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0 g: {+ x- v) ^0 V O6 I0 c「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
% ~" R+ \. s" Q! d: J( E「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
) Y6 u$ }9 M6 L4 O7 ?, n6 F) c" u: e2 q p2 Q
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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- }/ x# A8 s% `: h, X1 V4 L& g接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
) b( r1 N4 J [ x' ^' L' N因此铜板较容易出现正面。$ o6 T) ?) L3 Z2 k- [$ O
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 K( g7 P3 g+ U8 L6 z9 _/ k
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。; V9 B* R: A# |+ j5 T- `' k4 ?& H
心想赢定了。
6 ^9 s& W5 g3 b } $ l: }/ ?% @) T% j! B* ^
没想到开始不到半刻钟，
S8 b. ?( o" {5 M3 o. T( l4 r赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」5 S# R; |; j! y5 I
Q% D1 F! |8 I' [. l/ w/ z赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
! R$ L& K- F+ d* y5 ]但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
. o( j1 g- ?! {: i$ j2 c6 L 3 o' |. V% P% s8 t9 S- ?
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?7 L! j1 l/ k9 T% s
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 & P- A3 K, z: P$ ]/ h- Y% f
上帝回答道：
8 d3 W: }4 @( x3 J! E i% R「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
* ?4 r0 R2 N5 A& }0 D「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」" n. x# P# n( M; O% z6 m
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
1 D* H/ c X8 t3 n8 c
1 [) j& p6 {% u l9 N% e 赌徒恍然大悟，
- c; i3 W A; J# j6 r( T& c原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，6 x5 o6 b3 f3 B* f, ]
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
& i/ C0 X, u6 n0 H- T- F0 Z. T( B「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」 z l4 L, E- h2 y
上帝说完便不见踪影。 , J( T+ D' ]/ Q. b$ ?0 |- L$ d
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，) n, J; g0 D" x3 H$ H$ V
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，) d; N- t5 e8 l4 i- l% l$ B2 B
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
# S( Z+ T8 Q4 ^对赌徒十分有利。
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但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
8 h% M& t1 ]& Q在还没掷到1000次之前，
" j6 [' X; w1 g3 F V1 r仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。! K) O: E( N8 r+ A3 A ?1 h
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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% g# T# S3 B- ~/ H/ I! M( g7 Q% u 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
4 O5 y( v( y. V( ]$ J# J9 ^, f
0 ]2 M( I8 T% s: u8 X 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，9 X) M; N: o6 l4 n, z s. t+ Z" I( ]
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 9 Y/ \ h" y, V! N. P, x# v; l
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