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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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) V$ n4 _! z6 @( o3 b全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔: X/ }  M6 r& ], \

, ^9 a; O, i& E: w三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，5 l' y7 B4 @+ G( P
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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; t$ h) t* R1 S7 x然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，" y0 F% Z6 L/ C! A, ]- D8 o
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱0 b; j$ A2 H, a6 I; X6 F+ i# y

& Z1 n& W5 I* ^2 `. T- n: P* {; m当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目$ E& @  q, u6 T1 h7 c- x  }( f

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( h/ I/ k2 g8 L亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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: L% B' h( X' Q* [( N) x* T5 X而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，3 S1 c! L9 A$ ?% y

% v- B( W3 P; Z2 O: p( ?2 S6 z但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，  @* L& E1 t5 e+ V; @
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这比买国债存银行合算。  {% \8 S' }+ c; _1 e4 _: W7 l* J

; \% A' R4 Y, T5 e0 J$ U$ T" a在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，2 G) l8 I. s! b9 v$ k. k: k

/ n0 @. @. o) p2 x- Z2 Y( _几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。' M8 V0 j3 B* t& C
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，' s  V+ a) T. S% j& A! q7 V7 Z
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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6 r. y" e( t+ X( \回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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