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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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第三节 案例分析6 E, o$ A' ^0 g4 O4 R6 g( E2 J3 x1 E* |
例1:里昂 3-0 梅斯 (法联杯)$ z; ~, j) H% O0 i& v* {
初赔:1.40 3.70 7.00 支持一球0.80 实际初盘:0.80一球 1.057 P! w) P7 ?' v5 W2 m
中赔:1.44 3.75 6.25 支持一球0.875 实际中盘:0.82 一球 1.15
, }+ `, X9 j$ F) \4 W7 v; p X& T 终赔:1.46 3.75 7.70 支持一球0.925 实际终盘:0.75 一球 1.15% M" {$ k, [9 m' S6 U8 J/ b
分析:可能造热方为主队上盘。初盘水位与初赔吻合,上盘未出现同向受热。中盘水位略低于折合水位,下盘赔付较高。高峰期水位与中盘水位一致,缺少明显变化。临场降水为超低水,上盘赔付较于折合水位偏低。初设造热方未出现应有热度,而是一直降低赔付,最终的顺利打出。' C/ S0 }; ]2 P+ L3 k
5 C o' V' ]$ S/ J; B/ N4 k6 p' J 例2:尤文图斯3-0 拿波里
2 O1 u p3 p0 _ 初赔:1.90 3.10 3.65 支持半球0.90 实际初盘:0.95 半球 0.90
3 w$ n( W! h( `6 P6 T! ]1 i 中赔:2.05 3.15 3.60 支持半球1.05 实际中盘:1.10 半球 0.80. G4 @7 Y1 G; i
终赔:1.95 3.15 4.00 支持半球0.95 实际终盘:1.00 半球 0.90
. z( Z3 e7 x2 `' z; s6 H! T+ ?+ E4 g 分析:主队近况低迷,客队近期状态较好,排名差距不大,客队下盘存在被造热可能。初盘上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘被造热。中盘阶段上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘降水,下盘造热成功。终盘阶段上盘水位下调,略高于折合水位,下盘升水幅度较大盘口贴水较高,造热方赔付较高,最终上盘打出。8 [4 E* q0 S% `# V. E( @5 l
1 y0 Q9 v, x* s0 U2 e: {+ ] 例3:桑坦德0-0 艾科坎(国王杯); R+ u8 i7 [: [/ k1 O; c
初赔:1.50 3.60 5.30 支持一球1.00 实际初盘:1.00 一球 0.85
2 B9 }& t+ X( x* U( t 中赔:1.50 3.70 6.90 支持一球1.00 实际中盘:0.90 一球 1.00
+ a% L$ O- e+ u+ _ 终赔:1.55 3.50 6.50 支持一球1.10 实际终盘:1.13 一球 0.779 `8 R- S: o/ E$ F4 _
分析:可能造热方向为主队上盘,初赔阶段盘赔水位一致,上下盘都不# ?& t% m. h: [* D
热,但上盘贴水较高。中盘阶段上盘降水,存在造热上盘可能;临场阶段上盘升水为超高水,贴水较高,上盘不出。
$ ?/ L z. Z( ^ & b F7 y2 Q9 y3 d: \! k' K
例4:奥沙辛拿1-0 海格拉斯(国王杯)
! T. I: G$ Z8 `7 r2 i) _4 k 初赔:1.65 3.40 4.50 支持半一9.75 实际初盘:0.70半球1.15" _7 z( o( _" w% ~6 D
中赔:1.90 3.30 3.90 支持半球0.90 实际中盘:0.96 半球0.94
1 h; s* Q( k9 I( _ 终赔:2.05 3.30 3.40 支持半球1.05 实际终盘:1.10 半球 0.80* G) g3 h; J+ c/ V# Z
注:海格拉斯=靴格拉斯
5 A7 H7 I+ d" T1 Z8 P C* B 分析:受热可能方为客队下盘,初盘上盘盘口低于折合盘口给超低水,上盘反成被造热方;中盘阶段上盘升水,上盘水位高于折合水位,上盘造热失败;终盘阶段上盘继续升水,下盘大热。最终上盘打出。 j9 Q/ y, E4 g2 d, ~! A
, k) L8 Q3 \8 I# a
例5、AEK雅典1-1泰利普里斯(希腊超)6 Y( p: |& w0 P/ M
易胜初赔:1.90 3.00 3.65 支持半球中低水
5 [8 n- } X2 ^2 e, l- @0 P# U 实际初盘:0.65 平/半 1.20* Y1 h2 }! A# A$ U U6 w! z
易胜终赔:2.10 3.20 3.40 支持平/半低
/ E) m$ e7 R+ k 实际终盘:0.82 平/半 1.08* Y3 V8 F$ @! _. M, Y- P: @- f! v
注:泰利普里斯=卓普利斯9 _" r$ P {: Z2 b& x2 i" [' G, c5 m
分析:受热可能方向主队上盘,初赔盘口开小,给超低水,上盘受热。终赔支持平/半低水,上盘升水后盘赔比较一致,但是在造热方的赔付被提高,主队盘口较为便宜,下盘水位下调。最终上盘受热不出。
5 m2 y4 | C5 G$ y, P" a* {2 P& {
7 _( o: ^; f4 @% r 例6:帕纳辛奈科斯2-1佩亚列高斯(希腊超)& e( _+ @$ C; @1 C- \- z
易胜初赔:1.15 6.00 10.00 支持两球半超低水. T- ~! r9 P% W% C
实际初盘:0.85 两球 1.00) o& {' W/ [3 m. `3 B
易胜终赔:1.11 8.00 12.00 支持三球以上
5 h( S9 D. q8 a 实际终盘:0.75 两球 1.10( R, h q9 |6 B) t9 }5 R6 l
注:帕纳辛奈科斯=彭拿典奈高斯
8 A% j! P, }! _& f0 f! W 佩列亚高斯=派里高斯9 E! f. ~* `! n: u& \
分析:受热可能上盘主队,初盘盘口开小,水位虽为较低方,但是高于正常折合水位,上盘为受热方。临场继续降水,上盘造热成功型。最终上盘赢球输盘。 |
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所有的复盘,都是在知道结果的前提下进行的,总能找到一个理由或者观点才佐证这个赛果,任何看盘方法都有缺陷性,赌,心态第一,技术第二,运气第三,缺一不可 |
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