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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
3 e' C6 s. p! v+ n2 ^- w# \" U" s余勋也不例外、 3 ~: F6 g. [* D* p( F
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
0 t! |5 S9 \3 P是保经济的重要决策！ " l' V, \0 j/ S' l5 M
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 8 h% r- N2 U2 l0 s4 R- y3 D& }2 X
低点26700-32400、
4 _2 J9 B9 R- o2 [+ I% m反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
8 k/ I% s- f J3 K9 Z$ h: y: h但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
! a6 o+ z) I" L- Z大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
( \9 L/ F% ^* r' y涨幅就已回撤过半！ 8 p8 D8 ?/ J a
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
/ k' }7 ^, i/ S1 c A不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 $ y8 A4 A2 P6 c9 S9 r' n1 K
其次、
: ?: w' D' I. x0 R缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
2 T. K( I/ Z& e# n' B0 m每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
" v7 B; a* f/ J ~: l等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
: K* {# }9 n% S2 E! ~2 y0 i美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
3 g9 b* k( {* N6 v: u但回到币圈、 9 ]7 n" b2 r9 V! E, g1 [; x( v
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ' Q# r6 g6 r8 e3 @0 L, h* J9 A( l
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
$ i7 f1 E' j# D( Q- d而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
7 a" u1 \: ]; C, y$ Q6 b& |8 S个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
. }0 K9 m# v: e7 `! U0 ]" s缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 8 s5 U: G$ j9 U9 g
对当前的底部、影响有限。
{1 L4 J, {, D: ?1 M最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
. j j- X; S" t3 R# O: I所以27000、即是 - g/ N; L m7 `
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） * Y4 N3 X3 V+ P9 e& q( |
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
, c0 `2 h5 {+ N! n' I也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
0 t- ?6 D/ u9 l由此得出的结论是、
8 \, {; M" p( i7 o- l加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ; c6 |- o* Z+ l3 Z! S5 D
点位不会出现太大偏离。 $ @1 k, F/ _" q* l4 @: B+ G$ V
综合以上、 0 m! F7 m, A9 d; p
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
6 w# c( H$ ]. X4 \# l! g! p在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
0 P0 m7 b7 Y4 w9 |, g那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ( z# n$ q7 ]5 o! X
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ) g' H" L7 ?* [ S
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
4 j; `" \4 K5 b) @4 T) g即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
$ \4 r o# n5 r2 D3 t美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 / D1 J( _! ~; m) E% d: f
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
1 t4 S# F0 U0 [: `! O+ W大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 2 B1 ?* [2 X0 h D7 e2 @; H
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ! b2 X' [8 e2 v) @$ R. u
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
0 k( Y3 h/ [& W% i' X反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 # `4 x/ {) ]8 L+ K5 V9 \
得不偿失。
" x) s) @. P/ t来源：金色财经 |
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