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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑6 E. }# L( \' `; w0 S0 h6 m, o
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k7 L. h" c7 x. }9 Y' Q( h
: p' X: Z3 m: D" e2 U$ Z0 BG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)* Y8 m: \& n+ k
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [! ~" J) D9 ?5 O8 I7 \
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
8 h0 f5 ]6 F- I& j4 H7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
5 I8 m6 Q0 c* i做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
$ ?! \# g. d8 h8 K! H8 v3 O1 X* ^; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d; e1 Z0 I8 B) B0 |; b8 ?) W: F
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n0 Z+ a5 S/ u* c3 o; h. d
0 A3 h1 P6 l% c+ N& K1 l! m& F(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
/ F1 v# j- k q" B, r# Q+ S. L% n1 p7 t6 B# f: y5 x$ f
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
# K3 z6 w; \% E. f& H, J: ?' V+ g) I/ H7 A- c) O+ z
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
: r, E( D4 ~- H; |9 D5 u. A/ O. I6 P- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
; e0 \6 V4 K" D) g" w- ]我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 9 \" T T3 H9 t
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c" k: o2 g7 c0 ^4 b8 |# I
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 : V- J6 o1 P) f/ w* C: Q) P
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 + k/ i, @3 `3 o, T1 z4 R
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S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
; {: }+ W) F3 b2 I" F8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v5 b$ F6 X2 L6 w9 T2 X4 X8 K
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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% i$ p1 t, r) r8 |1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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9 |: r( G8 ~4 N9 `" D1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q7 z% ~4 M9 f# b) F5 l% V; @; T/ W
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 2 \( ^8 o8 I' l, f
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T' ~6 v8 p% g" }( V( @+ Y
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类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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9 Y1 d3 G" ]1 e& G. O/ }7 {# mS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
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: ^+ s" n7 I% R: ~! @: HS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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( L# L" i4 P; E' [+ E. Q _0 M/ G' SS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 $ F2 G1 P9 l8 x: m' G5 r4 c
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* z# h4 J R, n# q5 d+ c: KS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 % j! g5 {( Q$ Y& u v
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~* \- ^- M5 r, X9 p
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o- @) c8 F9 F {! Y8 |
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5 b: M# X4 e8 Q" `好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 4 s: S( x! @$ N E
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 7 R+ T) ~; ^8 d, I2 O! ^) w
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ; f3 P6 T6 v( X- A( s! D
8 H5 ~$ |( D2 p, B8 c' K; v! k7 P于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?4 b9 m- C1 r; N; u l
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
& Q9 z/ [( d, @8 X) k+ D$ n) P# X# M5 I8 u- I. P6 E/ ^0 v; Z& X
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 : b& a& ]! d1 B, P/ X3 l" G3 m
+ S% o# [" s( I) RG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]6 m% _2 E; p3 C. Q% N- ?5 J" x; }$ `6 a
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \: @3 w5 x# p7 D
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
* N! w! A0 a( Y* S通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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