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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 2 S$ g3 `% Z4 ~7 l2 A

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" @$ |8 v- q/ v( E, x只跟踪一个联赛
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* N( B( e( ~1 J( [  o5 r0 J# S全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔" ]1 o/ r5 u4 I" ?: l

- W. D6 T! r8 X' e% P5 l三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，/ @5 K! @/ @# o+ k! O7 S5 u$ X4 g

  G8 _9 |. R% M( D6 p+ L  l偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）" S* a4 H& E% v
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
8 j: E' [: x0 e' Z3 Z; w" V$ h& j5 V5 f" U) h2 K. R8 O
就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱4 h  N: p% u2 `) @' `
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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6 J+ J+ f& i! S4 S" n( X亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
* p: q: Q' T3 n' {& V1 r1 E3 e: V' ^4 o! F/ K2 v! J+ K
而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，2 N/ D* E( _6 m$ A7 ]

7 I% X3 P0 {9 }4 Y; K( W8 O但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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+ [( y7 @6 |$ S理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
$ |" c' w3 c& K! w8 _: c$ o  B- A: D# f+ W
排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，' W' L# T+ }: _$ b7 E8 a

1 U' T) X; z" g这比买国债存银行合算。* U) Q- q1 \. H5 T- s& Z0 F
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，3 R2 `" \2 `2 L6 F- v
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
2 k! l. Z* r. ]) [) {: U8 }
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。0 U5 X; m: z! Y1 s2 v! Y

( j6 \% I* T- a1 \( b放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，2 q5 k% t0 f! {* d( |' O7 K
2 W: A; k( h/ b' I! E. l* W. H/ A3 [7 V
就是回避了大的亏损，( g$ G7 i* O/ w$ U

) n. P7 j9 g$ j. `+ z大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，# \! u) d/ T' Y

+ C! }  f4 ^, }& a: S$ V1 e回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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