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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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8 u5 M% V1 q/ ^# z三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，& s* s/ T# u9 e/ b3 y

% D: _/ N- i1 p! B- N* F偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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8 O1 |! q- L: s/ G方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）' ~; }! a- k1 |* l( q
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，4 P5 Z" E# a. E5 N
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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$ m( W1 Y- K6 ?0 V; S当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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$ g3 {' p9 p9 J8 X0 P7 t; s& ~亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，1 s+ d$ ]2 W* R# |, E# |  Y
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，3 ?6 i, J, }* d: N

0 _6 Q2 w" }1 g但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，6 s  _, j: }- |4 Q, W. f* O

% K7 p  [) N( `但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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# H4 O: Z1 ~! L5 i  I这比买国债存银行合算。
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& }1 r+ e9 E: f; O, m* q* E在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，" w& L9 }4 `, a2 h; x+ z

. `" I8 Q2 B" g- `5 Q1 @9 i" Y1 V; Q几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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; D2 {7 m' m* `" v( o常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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" j! z2 v( H( w0 }, a4 F( m8 M放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，& X8 P# V4 X' K+ X8 M: d
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，1 k( x' D" U; d0 k0 u, I( H
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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