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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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# B2 t* J; k7 D" W但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。6 A5 u1 J8 q% r9 H' \" ~; G
! |9 }+ G) d. \/ wUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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5 ^. a/ A* h( b4 \- Q- I5 M0 s开局艰难，但历史看好牛市1 ]) F) i* J4 Z! G+ q3 e
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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, b0 c, v; g0 I0 m, t+ P6 X1 m来源：Alphractal: s5 @9 G4 R5 a' M& ?- n9 ]0 r
, h5 H: Q# B# q( g* @' s15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了; z- E$ A! g; \8 h" A
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。9 |1 H9 V& W; @1 _ o1 }
3 k" H+ g4 V! W3 C来源：X5 N \* n) ~. F5 m5 [2 O
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。& e) T$ |+ Q5 D& ~- U% Z! ]
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。" N1 e! f$ c5 k, K) [& j, D7 O
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。! _$ C/ ]7 C( R: R' B( {9 ^8 \
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
0 `5 h% t' a) Q3 m' ]9 d! i经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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; F' J9 A0 l3 c+ x8 ~5 P来源：TradingView
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8 c6 c0 t$ j6 m6 ^& ~日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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1 r. M+ a7 b( I Y0 A" ?, U突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。! E ?7 A- Z1 F' m( V' x+ i
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