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[lastpost] => 2813579 美国2月未季调CPI年率将于今晚20:30公布，预期2.4%，前值2.4%（转） 1773287074 舞出精彩
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! C6 r! s2 Q# _: K7 V加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为3 p. ^ b0 n. S: C; K
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，' E1 n- {. Z* [. f/ d1 V# N
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
2 |% v* t+ a1 ~1 c4 ~9 k, ]% F8 x一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
. {9 N1 G3 v5 r! m/ KBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。8 S$ c2 A6 I1 P* t) R
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：/ d! l/ O/ @) e6 I
2024年4月第四次减半+ l \- d- i$ i) p" V
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
, ~4 f3 ^4 i- T4 ]可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
" v6 k! y1 [. _3 L针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。- b. P, L1 m( c1 z" p9 V" D
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
1 A6 G/ d5 z1 O+ P, m4 ~( E& _ I! g; xfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。" U# ~: J `' h5 I5 E
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠- |. N' v! Z) t# ^7 ~4 i
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
( p/ C+ l d% `5 I5 B- c! y Z三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁# D% H) f O5 L j& e% f* K
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
3 k( v8 {! K Q金融(TradFi)产品。
, `3 u% {/ O2 \8 Z* o! y! R如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
4 z, ~6 P4 _. o# T& r) f- E1 r- E3 a" X7 |链桥」的项目。" H1 S' s+ \- l2 P" e. D
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉8 N; U4 f% Z! l O: O0 ]
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
# W6 S% O% {2 s等。
9 G, k$ C' y8 a. P) e3 SPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
& @, ^! c! k! ^) r7 @) k; g在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
! ~- }" s, T9 }五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN3 ~* v1 P' R2 S+ v
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
4 c. G$ F2 {5 o" @/ t( G数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。9 @. m2 K- z5 F6 O4 t0 i b
Pantera点名了几个项目：. B) I5 M* x' U
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
3 a1 K/ g; o) A+ mBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台8 N: ^6 ?- ]4 L U, Z2 _! x; x) K6 G. P
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品, D( i* a# [+ G3 R3 U
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
. V0 q5 ~* _# LRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游8 u$ a& [: Z) R+ E. }/ ]
六、小型公链需专注特定应用; t" A4 k% a9 r( X6 @ w1 ]- O$ B
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚3 J; ^ x( n9 @/ d3 {# K" h2 ?& q% M
至能直接与L2竞争。
9 R3 k- v0 J8 t; ~* z- I也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
) U, `; h5 d( B4 X) l: Q5 R( oPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地0 Z8 `' \ G* K" q
成为「应用链」。
. y2 H1 m! t' {7 g E事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
+ Y5 T7 Z4 s- k- Y- O4 G
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