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[lastpost] => 2813372 EasyMarkets易信:比特币ETF现连续流入信号（转） 1773138720 人生如赌
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人1 b! @+ y/ o* s# M3 t
& z8 j9 O4 f2 u* ~. e, D认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，) t0 f! L! ~; T/ d4 @
+ {3 s) p6 w8 P* |3 ~* V y7 R而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
8 h4 u3 X* P' O+ b- U+ L' ?: V9 N! i& ]; O) e" I
的千禧一代。1 e6 \. f# o/ v+ Y8 m% V
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB* ^- I1 J: q( ?
8 o6 t. a6 p* h$ }4 E的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
6 E. U5 S- M( g6 K
1 I/ C& `8 d; V" q9 H+ u: `. F. w 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
0 G+ Z& c0 J2 X) u) E3 {
1 O) d& q8 y/ v1 H% F密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
, [8 R% v# l' ~
2 K) H& }, u5 M/ d! G8 K2 {; f《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成& _% O% r* Y8 P, ]! b/ r! a, @
2 `) T2 }" d% V
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》1 t7 D3 E) V& _8 o) g' G9 C
) e7 P0 r' i8 @5 @% {5 v
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；7 W8 }: ~; n! _$ d; M: F
/ G/ D6 F) \- @" }( N7 r
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为+ z; j/ Y7 I; \; r; L/ o* Z
4 Q, |4 B/ o! u( ?
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
3 c2 s, d$ j C& [& ~9 y
3 m# R U# {0 ]5 A7 ~据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
" x6 m ^5 T+ B L1 H7 W0 e; P" u( b( \/ D1 ^# G
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。9 o3 j/ y* v- b6 D7 I% w! i
$ ?5 v7 y" [3 O. x% y* O3 g与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
+ D6 i p1 g3 U( I/ ^0 O5 ?: ~
# H- G( k# I3 b9 B' [世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富% \& _6 [. @: \7 _, T! d9 |# F& ^
# O7 d! u: H" ^8 z
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不8 e. |2 h$ E$ U" f
; R7 x0 b, @& j! G
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一/ Z& D% D; g- R& E W
$ q! O' A5 `; _
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成' _9 [7 K, D( i0 h" S
% Y2 P8 `/ N2 b1 q本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
) N2 _* O8 i; r+ O, K
" I. N3 r7 E5 X系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货2 x x. }- }5 d2 R, G, f( H
4 |# u0 S2 r! e7 B6 z( ~币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致( Q/ h. E# ?5 `
* E4 g4 u l! v' A* ?+ u未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
7 U5 z9 a3 V: \
$ K! E+ d8 ^" Q- m3 G/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
9 t, r' G6 w$ o+ \+ H. X. y( o3 [& f% d0 u, d. R4 |
9 G* d/ |$ p) e/ I3 x2 r1 D |
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