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第三节 案例分析' Z3 H, B x& e3 B
例1:里昂 3-0 梅斯 (法联杯)
( }- a+ M% H( X1 K0 c" l 初赔:1.40 3.70 7.00 支持一球0.80 实际初盘:0.80一球 1.05
# N& Z) e( }/ n 中赔:1.44 3.75 6.25 支持一球0.875 实际中盘:0.82 一球 1.159 Z3 f' l( z, W8 U0 x
终赔:1.46 3.75 7.70 支持一球0.925 实际终盘:0.75 一球 1.15
) ^/ e; M1 c' s) g! w 分析:可能造热方为主队上盘。初盘水位与初赔吻合,上盘未出现同向受热。中盘水位略低于折合水位,下盘赔付较高。高峰期水位与中盘水位一致,缺少明显变化。临场降水为超低水,上盘赔付较于折合水位偏低。初设造热方未出现应有热度,而是一直降低赔付,最终的顺利打出。0 W2 k, |7 ]/ e( P' O8 T
" I. U2 Q& t2 h4 H+ }1 Q# X( N% a1 | 例2:尤文图斯3-0 拿波里, n G$ @, k2 ?& Y
初赔:1.90 3.10 3.65 支持半球0.90 实际初盘:0.95 半球 0.90
5 D7 t+ ? c$ Q7 l) ~) o 中赔:2.05 3.15 3.60 支持半球1.05 实际中盘:1.10 半球 0.80
/ n- U% n) W2 R) t* V5 H: K" w 终赔:1.95 3.15 4.00 支持半球0.95 实际终盘:1.00 半球 0.90% Y& y/ @6 o+ r `0 S$ p
分析:主队近况低迷,客队近期状态较好,排名差距不大,客队下盘存在被造热可能。初盘上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘被造热。中盘阶段上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘降水,下盘造热成功。终盘阶段上盘水位下调,略高于折合水位,下盘升水幅度较大盘口贴水较高,造热方赔付较高,最终上盘打出。
. k/ q9 Z; w& g4 G9 d8 ^& ^9 F # }1 P( Y7 v1 R( T
例3:桑坦德0-0 艾科坎(国王杯)
) \- \0 ?3 e$ @+ Y5 Q1 J% C9 \ 初赔:1.50 3.60 5.30 支持一球1.00 实际初盘:1.00 一球 0.85
. p! P, {( B- H9 i( X8 V) A4 n0 L 中赔:1.50 3.70 6.90 支持一球1.00 实际中盘:0.90 一球 1.00' `. ~/ U: S- M2 C
终赔:1.55 3.50 6.50 支持一球1.10 实际终盘:1.13 一球 0.77% i4 x& {- X: g h( t
分析:可能造热方向为主队上盘,初赔阶段盘赔水位一致,上下盘都不
! h# K5 }1 p; v7 M 热,但上盘贴水较高。中盘阶段上盘降水,存在造热上盘可能;临场阶段上盘升水为超高水,贴水较高,上盘不出。7 O& [5 s K, f
, I( O0 E+ u. | w3 q+ E
例4:奥沙辛拿1-0 海格拉斯(国王杯); K1 L& d; N! g( u) P5 ]$ ]
初赔:1.65 3.40 4.50 支持半一9.75 实际初盘:0.70半球1.15# o4 s& y/ r, r! Q# j
中赔:1.90 3.30 3.90 支持半球0.90 实际中盘:0.96 半球0.94
0 ]. @" f% @3 H/ } m 终赔:2.05 3.30 3.40 支持半球1.05 实际终盘:1.10 半球 0.80
$ g; s! {! X% V) i6 a2 a 注:海格拉斯=靴格拉斯
, `% w6 k% t2 t) c. j 分析:受热可能方为客队下盘,初盘上盘盘口低于折合盘口给超低水,上盘反成被造热方;中盘阶段上盘升水,上盘水位高于折合水位,上盘造热失败;终盘阶段上盘继续升水,下盘大热。最终上盘打出。) L5 x: [4 ~1 j5 S [2 ?
+ c+ N0 k+ T' }+ l, C
例5、AEK雅典1-1泰利普里斯(希腊超)
1 K( l# d( ]2 K' D7 i7 e 易胜初赔:1.90 3.00 3.65 支持半球中低水7 Q" W: ~/ X/ p" F" _
实际初盘:0.65 平/半 1.20* ?* c9 S: {+ N6 k( j2 ]
易胜终赔:2.10 3.20 3.40 支持平/半低
) u# Y# S: P- H( c7 Y% k0 Q 实际终盘:0.82 平/半 1.08
8 V: u6 Y7 K* t5 O, B 注:泰利普里斯=卓普利斯$ Y& [4 V) T% L- X
分析:受热可能方向主队上盘,初赔盘口开小,给超低水,上盘受热。终赔支持平/半低水,上盘升水后盘赔比较一致,但是在造热方的赔付被提高,主队盘口较为便宜,下盘水位下调。最终上盘受热不出。
! N$ u1 J+ H* F8 u
+ I# h5 u1 X0 g9 A1 A 例6:帕纳辛奈科斯2-1佩亚列高斯(希腊超). E6 W; Y& @% B8 q# H1 s
易胜初赔:1.15 6.00 10.00 支持两球半超低水
; _- B) u4 ]( ]) ?( y) ?3 u" Q 实际初盘:0.85 两球 1.009 f, f% Z& [/ g. f* u/ \5 n. K: ~
易胜终赔:1.11 8.00 12.00 支持三球以上. d& O4 Q* M* c; t
实际终盘:0.75 两球 1.101 T4 `2 ?' {' f! \! Q( y
注:帕纳辛奈科斯=彭拿典奈高斯/ B5 h7 C; S; i! l" \& ^
佩列亚高斯=派里高斯4 A/ X4 f* j S+ ~
分析:受热可能上盘主队,初盘盘口开小,水位虽为较低方,但是高于正常折合水位,上盘为受热方。临场继续降水,上盘造热成功型。最终上盘赢球输盘。 |
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所有的复盘,都是在知道结果的前提下进行的,总能找到一个理由或者观点才佐证这个赛果,任何看盘方法都有缺陷性,赌,心态第一,技术第二,运气第三,缺一不可 |
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