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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 0 X" h3 t+ f' L" l+ S
1 Y4 {# t# S9 m7 _* e4 U其实原文标题不是这样的
: p2 a. I; l# c* B7 e; h7 F9 c( u. M" u. }6 n
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!4 c& g) @2 B, w% G
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
7 J' _6 g! K) C4 G" v) X他希望能和上帝来场赌局。* {; }. [" {9 c5 Q( U- a
: W7 R9 |7 v0 H# F" }! u, {
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
1 X. ~; ]7 t' \; T9 p! Y6 o8 [ c% g
0 H9 {% Y5 o+ v 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」4 ]/ m( ]" u4 K' g" M8 f
( I N7 [6 d; |$ ~# u
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 ) v K/ }5 C; t. u" g, t1 |* B
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
s0 Q( v5 |* n- }. k
) Q2 }) y# L: r- `* L# x# g7 c8 q 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。6 l. w/ V' Q1 K9 O- b5 r
. [; K6 A; ?* |接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，$ I; Z0 S. D$ i5 L0 F2 x
因此铜板较容易出现正面。) F: }. |6 ^! V; }
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ! R* X/ g3 q1 J- j* h# O4 x
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
8 b! T2 X/ L" q6 ]+ s/ g( q心想赢定了。
5 w# U/ N- e$ {# f0 _ [+ Y
+ `5 Q" z9 W0 _" S没想到开始不到半刻钟，
: o! l5 g+ v E$ p$ C( M8 ~赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
4 ?! \1 l1 c9 @4 x# x/ d' k5 N U3 O# ~# j; Y" M% I
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
: h2 P% P/ b* @但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。' Q7 G+ M5 S+ g% p$ [1 S
) x6 f8 _9 E# c$ K9 G2 J
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?- i7 p5 X) w. n5 g' B
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
! x) [% b( d9 e
上帝回答道：( c2 y, I; Y7 A; f
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
1 C' V- R: Q' N9 W( N7 Z( G+ y「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
2 t: E6 A3 K& Q" }0 `9 }, |「而不是先发生在我身上。」+ b( K6 o% k+ S. _, G0 |9 y
8 O; c( S+ Z" P( L# d, o6 u
赌徒恍然大悟，
% E' W1 r- B- Y原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
: F3 u% j" \2 _9 }4 B% D7 _9 b竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！* O+ g* ?: B; V, Z w
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
4 `8 _. M( [0 f _! b) l* l/ v9 Y! W/ b上帝说完便不见踪影。 6 W c" j8 J0 ^5 E, L: r5 k
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，% I$ T( ?* { l' e& I; u/ R* F/ e% W
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
5 l V0 j0 P( N1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
' G, ^: v: B, i+ a% M对赌徒十分有利。
7 u) V% z& O; @. |- w1 X) Z
O" v$ u3 Q6 n9 Q+ ~2 d但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，. n2 F/ u- ?4 }/ l5 v: x" k# W
在还没掷到1000次之前，
8 b7 T* ?0 A; J9 j9 |仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
6 k7 K1 ]+ m+ ~7 _5 L* ?/ G
, l7 N5 I% ]3 `) G8 w( `9 h% t* Z n5 h 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
$ E4 \1 j; I( M% S8 W6 F6 w4 f
3 Y# l/ x" o, W8 B' b( W J7 [ 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
+ l8 g' e' t: ?4 H2 f
1 r7 [, o+ K7 `, o, X; K! Z0 S 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，5 F2 b0 v' Z) V1 m9 m) _$ B( C
% i `5 P$ ~+ C+ L& B
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ # x4 N" e1 |' Y" j3 V9 o
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