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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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其实原文标题不是这样的# u, [ m/ }* h1 Y7 {' ]% C
4 ?: m) E, x$ u! q9 l9 u这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!/ ]# t4 N. B9 e* E
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...* W: O6 l8 Q9 h( C- K
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
! n$ C s8 ^7 d0 T* A( O. L5 F/ F" |- n- r. `2 }
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。+ q& ]; k3 y7 Z: J* M8 p
3 \" z7 P/ x! D/ p8 J; b, q& a
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
% R& b3 ?- q2 x% t/ m9 W8 e/ h% P
, k4 N8 m; E9 i「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 9 i" T" y0 y! q( m
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
5 \+ t1 [& |) h* m
4 ?+ u& w# c2 z1 V 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
' e6 `: M1 m* | G/ q # X4 r; T* h; |& c0 i) r: O3 ~
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
1 P6 [5 Z. C- R, T7 A2 T) A因此铜板较容易出现正面。
5 a' B" R+ G% m. l* A长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 % P! T+ u: D) j
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。5 l5 W/ @8 Y) }) e6 Z
心想赢定了。1 }: |3 s u, w; }, p) q+ j
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，& ^0 _& |* {- e( Q6 k# s6 \0 v# \, U
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」- _: R4 @. V& t( A4 p m3 V$ P& g
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
; Q$ g: y! N3 A2 o x; u% P8 l但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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& ^- }* H" j+ w$ m" ~赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
% F3 {6 a1 F" `* s3 B0 N他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
0 T( g5 `2 m1 v3 u, i) O; z, R0 g「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
2 H0 W& i ], F/ `「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
# T, x+ i' r, R1 a「而不是先发生在我身上。」
3 Y; L& J" Q! T* z+ c+ `+ f* W; M; h u* A: j
赌徒恍然大悟，
% D; @7 e4 f6 s& q7 S" M$ B原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，3 f& c2 E& p9 i, g4 l0 V
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！" S1 W8 ]/ c, X5 [/ C7 A4 Z
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
- t9 P5 l4 A4 v( E; b5 {6 ~5 H上帝说完便不见踪影。
# Z+ a3 J7 a' p
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，: R2 W' Y7 s5 @& j2 ]4 V
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，- J: v& h" K0 X0 g
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，5 Z) P! z& D8 l$ d& o
对赌徒十分有利。
' _4 b, y. I' u, `/ e6 L. I4 `# s & A: s: J. V6 r( ~; C
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，3 z5 f) P3 i8 I8 D! d" _
在还没掷到1000次之前，/ o$ i# {: [, n# N! w, L
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。% n& T' G, Z$ r+ V
1 m' F3 Z c" J/ e# y, Y 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。8 d. [' j9 }2 ?/ i) \
: ] f" S- b( m; P 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。+ r+ q b7 [/ M/ L; d$ Y$ A! H
3 b! t6 p% H+ Q; I' V
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，3 i6 i- a: U9 U$ \ }2 C' A& [- t
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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