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[打法交流]
玩双色球防骗技巧----“一码中蓝”,搁你头上你晕不晕?(转)
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玩双色球防骗技巧----“一码中蓝”,搁你头上你晕不晕?嘀嘀嘀”,短信来了。
# u* E% E$ f9 y2 M$ C. ?! O打开一看:“彩票公司回报彩民,向您透露本期双色球蓝号:15。请勿外传,机会只此一次,请善加把握。”
) ?) ^1 G! k6 u A2 T你嗤之以鼻:“切,哪来的骗子!”: _) P& h) o" z6 I) ]6 h
一开奖,你傻眼了:蓝球15。
. q+ G3 m: C7 b6 a* D$ G大腿拍烂了也来不及了!我怎么就没相信人家呢!彩票公司直接告诉我号码了我咋就没信呢!早知道我买它十万注蓝球15哇!
& Y# A) E* h4 I# s4 [( B还说人家是骗子,人家开奖之前告诉我号码,就一个15,一开就中了,人家哪里骗我了!5 b" O" h$ d8 C/ k
于是,你疯了一般后悔、痛恨自己错失良机。
( a) I. x7 x; b L( G8 f再过几分钟,你的想法发生了变化,刚才的悔恨已经变成了希望----要是它再给我发一次该多好!
, |6 |8 {: k7 X& K8 w这时电话打过来了:“恭喜您中奖,蓝球15您打了多少倍?”
8 I. ^! S8 Q# L# b0 t9 _/ |7 R4 y你捶胸顿足,求对方再告诉你下期的蓝号。3 F/ P, @! c5 R- o
对方犹豫不决,你主动提出给人家好处。7 _! P) W' N* h, c3 X
于是,用一万块钱买了下期的蓝号。
& H0 T+ X- e* `他告诉你10号。9 i+ v, O* i. w! x9 A* a% ?7 P' c
接下来呢………………( z* M( R( x1 c2 F6 c( |3 H3 J
………………………………
. A$ B* @! N9 S3 i9 R3 ~) d……………………………………
) H3 R7 b1 M( o' F: N, W你倾家荡产买的蓝球10,全折了。8 c& L$ L/ }! y& d7 d
明明它就是骗子嘛!& C1 T+ Y: m1 y
可是,他那个蓝球15是怎么准的呢?
3 D+ D5 g6 p+ q6 r这就是幸存者偏差。你看它只看到一个点,而他面对的却是16万个随机目标。
- \$ u j. N' h! b+ g) i, `1 \. x" U他给这16万个电话号码发短信,第一万个人它告诉蓝球1;第二万个人它告诉蓝球2;第三万个人它告诉蓝球3……你是第十五万个人中的一员,他告诉你15。$ D) c0 K; ]' U! W# M3 {( ^
一开奖,必定有一万个人会发现自己收到的“唯一的蓝号”中奖了。
& I o4 E: S; d' f9 w! z: U% i7 W这一万个人中可能有二百个恰好是彩民。7 _1 U1 C8 m7 S! G0 K
这二百个彩民当中肯定可以涌现出一两个像你一样“头脑灵活”的人。
' J9 o* }1 r3 r% {于是,你幸运地成为“一码中蓝”的上钩者。
5 a' l# _6 S" M9 a
& ^" j8 Y! \! u, w4 @2 H% [- s* B7 o |
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