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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 * E3 w7 M  I! H) S- Q# t( @, f

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) y3 j8 t4 J2 `( B0 [2 y- X只跟踪一个联赛0 A& {4 g- p- u5 x; \# s

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% Q8 a% D* x, I2 C: e全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔4 M. t, B, v6 Z

$ z; ^. o) p8 I8 A三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，. Z! ?/ ~+ e; u2 a
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。; S  v* A3 a) n1 C$ x) p  b' q9 M
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）) W0 O: \% M+ X' U4 Z% A
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，1 Y: c9 @$ N- S( x, j" N; h' J
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱, D  A$ V4 u  E% `

. {+ W% W# ~" o9 j3 D$ W当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，) M  }, K* Z8 ?& P2 [6 `" Q
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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& _. r' K$ e2 o1 ]( r但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。' l* |. L6 x3 s* c5 I4 u( v% e

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' l/ }% A1 [* O9 p' }) s! x理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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. B& c9 n; y# t; W" s8 s但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，9 q3 X' G9 |" b' V' ^3 t  E

1 y$ L, u& O/ V% e, ]$ G) T这比买国债存银行合算。
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7 [2 g0 ]. k6 @8 X; O在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。% F1 _$ ~5 K* @! A1 T, `5 b2 r( ?
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，3 F* l3 S  R' f- h
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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