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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
5 A4 m9 h. N+ J0 t* B1 e3 [; W8 Y
! ~$ R8 }* ~6 e# d 平手中水,主队有利
1 w, Y( G5 @4 V" }% ^0 |7 h 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。 a, v. G% i- i/ R! U4 I) G
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
4 \- T1 C4 e" D7 K Z1 k 英超主队
. v- r& h6 [% F2 E/ F8 v: d$ Y 胜:13场 48%4 |" n; N* c+ z# n
平:5场 17%, L; `, p; q6 y8 R
负:9场 35%9 [. `5 V+ E4 {, Q& S; c
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
; R1 o$ c/ q! u- D# c- S 0 e0 ~, D! _& U! h5 e2 D' \7 _, ~) L
一、初盘阶段
; @7 J4 _0 p/ I; R7 q 具体到水位如下:
$ {/ K, ^2 _, L/ i0 U4 K7 | 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负. ?) B, y+ T' s/ ^) O
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负' U) l, O( U6 F$ }
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
# S: A" A* r7 N$ M M2 ~3 T
2 ^+ s7 Z/ m( U% ~* K7 I 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。7 V1 b3 k/ U ?/ l
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
5 l/ H% V h% m 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
$ u {# x5 a% D: a3 M ) r, N; j: M+ H
二、临场阶段
: c! { |8 \9 T' U# T2 w; P! l
, t; Z7 X: s! J% J7 ` 具体到变盘和水位如下:
# e- l4 b# R: Q! o' k8 y6 G0 f 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负/ ^* o/ y9 Z6 ? x4 x! s& X! c
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负$ G6 }7 L, Z& p7 K) e( N* ?
- d1 x' ^/ n) V/ A3 h1 K
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。9 X9 Y, g+ H4 R- f/ w
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:# U9 y! w; }" d! q+ Q" J
1 {1 X7 z$ x7 I) |1 R9 d5 h; H& r1 C 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿* l: W4 R/ `) l" U' q1 m8 t4 s' {, b
初盘:0.82平手1.04& n) g V% K9 x. L* w/ D6 l
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
w: o& O/ z7 d
! R) v: ~( H, x% Z# t* r% W1 n! M 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
7 b U7 v0 |( t2 i/ D" B 初盘:0.76平手1.10
- p8 k; _: ]. p0 R8 b 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91( X6 j- Q5 f5 U
3 R" C- D# }, | 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
; o6 N1 _1 c$ |! f. M2 I 初盘:0.82平手1.04/ l# O! d/ h) o: C9 i" o- \
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
- d1 D+ _; y1 B( {6 ]7 N, J
4 c2 N7 v# \! B 伯恩利2-1西汉姆' u0 r; z1 ]8 H8 |/ b
初盘:0.88平手0.989 ~7 o4 F+ w( ?. Z
终盘:1.12平/半0.74 g# \. {: r. ?; k5 ? h
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
( F: ~' S3 S) c" B& d 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
' v$ P9 \/ N, X4 p 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。" l) ]3 Z, A9 j5 \# o" |/ |. g' `0 _
* [' ]" s0 x+ M/ M8 @) c
三、球队表现+ R: t% p3 L% Z& Q
3 s% b( H* V0 P9 D& k% X
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。% @. Y4 R. {" r6 R1 t9 _1 b" F0 k% j5 e
" p) t5 h1 }% ?3 X4 q6 Y' B
四、投注要点* X; Y; T/ r( _1 c5 P: O# t) Z+ _
要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 ^, x" ?/ a' b1 o
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
; B+ o, a2 I. f+ A 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
9 D+ z9 \5 s! J( x L 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% \" S p; Y6 Q 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
6 r* x3 S' b+ q' m. a 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大* Y( E6 A1 C6 h9 T6 K
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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