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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
; G9 _5 d6 w/ S& h( r3 }     * J+ f- l5 q% J; ~1 K& s9 f
     平手中水,主队有利
  m2 w' s# X" I9 j1 a0 {  s9 f5 d% [     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。3 P* R1 H& O: J
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:4 c- ]) ]# K3 V/ H% i3 v+ i
     英超主队
! B+ A& x+ k  v5 t     胜:13场 48%# |$ ~6 \9 W- @. |
     平:5场 17%
! u# r, r4 v: l7 Z8 S     负:9场 35%
$ ~3 ^( q( o7 G8 Q! ]$ y" C     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! w& ^9 G( i$ y$ ]3 n
     1 x8 T5 D$ d% M" \9 R/ a) A
     一、初盘阶段
0 B3 |# L' I& j2 ?+ @3 d" j# u) A     具体到水位如下:
2 n. x. |& T; z     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负2 }% S# f( x+ |1 N9 }
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负# ]+ m( T7 o8 l% n. J, J4 O
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
. Q2 f' e+ A, ^7 _     $ n7 E- r! z/ O! Q
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。! q8 [7 d+ j% P! m: P3 n. x& o
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。9 q. M) [) d  h8 G% P# C( r9 i
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
9 w8 j% k& `! F/ R     
' Y  n# l% c# @% c     二、临场阶段) o1 c( Y) N+ L( _
     
: X) i& @. O9 I# j5 x" n, Y5 C     具体到变盘和水位如下:/ k. K& ?$ a/ t  N# N0 ]& c% ^( `3 y
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负* j$ X4 Y8 Z1 r" W$ C) v' `
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
% w5 a, I  s' ]; n- h- t" u     
2 s+ c4 j/ y, E" F$ `7 D( e- U* G     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
1 \% I2 o6 o+ a* \     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
/ W8 A) M+ [/ @5 {. V+ b8 Z     ; T& \" h9 s! {0 E5 h/ h
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 j" G" C0 a$ [9 x8 q* W     初盘:0.82平手1.041 X5 F# U9 k- p# s  K
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
3 @8 }0 c. c% T9 E; ^     
3 r# Y9 m! w2 W( s9 S     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆" ^2 }: n9 R7 _: {) r- ?
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
! ^9 H' A# e1 {: ?     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.911 h, v" T% j; `+ u
     / x/ D2 U0 C- L' Q
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
7 r6 t# \: U1 h" d$ \* i% h2 D     初盘:0.82平手1.04
# ^; F9 c  J- T" y% I/ m" Y     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
0 K3 W7 M3 a, C: z- T1 N       T3 y% O" Y% m* t, f$ w
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆, S- W4 r5 G8 ]( q. G
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
, ~  P9 V' \2 V' c" ]3 i: S     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
# N! x- v2 Z+ J, G% S9 D     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
; Z; _* Q6 U% l5 b     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。3 B6 l$ ~$ t/ Q( m/ `. k; [( q4 G1 [
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
  O: E, |% G( O1 d/ V  q     
. |( g* {9 r) D$ h& r. x* a     三、球队表现
! Z& O# t3 }" c& {. D5 h+ h( g     
% F* \- ]; J! H2 J2 Z7 ~1 G9 W$ {     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
( [  Z* M' e2 W2 K4 _9 Z: ~     
  e" ^* U6 o" D6 Q* }4 R) {     四、投注要点4 l: c- S4 D! ], A1 W  ]9 V
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
9 b2 K. ?. J* z, t0 r2 w  s6 {' E9 w     要点2:平手降盘、走两头' ~7 O9 V3 O3 ^. Z4 F% ~% f$ c
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
9 x# S/ e) }7 K/ ~* ^     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
, h& i, @% S6 c: P& S: o     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
+ {% n, u$ ]/ g     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
- V( ]( V) r% O# g- f' Q& G     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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