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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 ' ~9 r) o4 ], L; C
, G5 J# N p8 P: h其实原文标题不是这样的
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( F$ S! ?5 I0 k这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!6 c( l; W* c: }* c1 C
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
2 F% @5 ]% T! b2 [" ~* N他希望能和上帝来场赌局。, ^3 ?2 l, k; _' _9 k
; J" i2 }6 ? J2 A: Y& x
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
5 D2 }1 \2 v# g! I2 l; P
$ z9 |& y; Z, t 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」0 T& `7 P1 ^, C* V, H1 d
+ ?3 U n# S) @3 n「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 , T& d$ c9 Z$ s; F' X) u
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」5 N% v. v+ C8 P- s5 Q9 z! Q
- @3 D6 Z/ I! m
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。& u1 u$ J: {; w
" B5 {8 z, B9 E N% W; Z6 s
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
" ^) z& I9 |. O) L0 l/ d7 R8 f+ d因此铜板较容易出现正面。! y( b- B3 v. e n
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ' L- a/ G* g, E3 q p6 G0 {: |+ A
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
. ^* u/ \$ b: I; F. b' n心想赢定了。* V' f) D# K6 M* Z7 | i! }8 u
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，- s+ t+ t3 I# v s+ Y
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，+ L! m& D! T( s+ s5 R
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。$ K# f$ d: R% I2 o+ t8 I
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
9 |3 J6 I# x0 a- X; G" E他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 ( r/ [8 u. r- ^4 P' ` j
上帝回答道：
# }/ ?& q) G- @8 U7 L: l「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
9 U) w- ?# `: k' e2 _9 F2 s; H「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」8 w* U; v* P2 o% B% Q" A0 L( ]( H* y
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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赌徒恍然大悟，7 [" S, |2 ]/ N3 \$ T- Q
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
$ |+ k W8 p( s0 b竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！# w' W8 r3 C6 [" H- j
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
0 D' X: ?( S u; G$ G7 j! [上帝说完便不见踪影。
2 N% [3 L+ i. y: Z7 Q
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
4 w2 c' h+ b5 a& P若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，" h h) ?+ b: `9 y4 J6 j
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
4 H7 ~1 x9 `- V( ]/ I: R对赌徒十分有利。
& u6 M: E% E9 n" o8 a# R1 @2 t' A" e
8 e# c4 F3 A; B. V) p但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，1 V8 ~' U- t7 ]% [4 Z# a. |
在还没掷到1000次之前，
8 y( U0 J7 G- F2 s7 D仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。0 M' {; r( ]: {3 b
4 H0 L' M+ V, {7 D& \5 s 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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1 V* v8 S6 s7 W& \& \- \: p, e, H 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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1 Y. s3 g, X( }% v 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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