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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。) Y2 u0 l+ U8 P
6 i+ }6 ?5 L8 D. Z j/ |但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。/ V5 `' V0 {" K+ F+ ?
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？7 N9 g: a* g) N7 {( _( v
) ~5 B! T: b6 B2 |3 x' K; ?& K开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
. C* ^$ n7 D, `, `2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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1 Z* U- b6 S7 B5 T来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。 Q1 e( `, U1 y
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。5 a; Z3 ~! l, M0 D# D. d% r
4 o* s4 \9 A3 L( N- h8 x. _0 h事情变得有趣了& ?* W, p+ V7 s6 h) w( e
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X; I. x. \7 z/ `+ \
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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. m3 e" t. Z' I% M正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。, q2 F0 e7 j& I/ r
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力( w* V8 ~/ W9 v+ F
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。" d# h1 D$ F* N, b% `0 d7 B
5 ~2 V! w8 \' [1 _; a( g来源：TradingView: W2 [: J7 D* O% |
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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6 c# F$ z0 ]9 v- ]然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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& G6 x: }* ? t7 q1 o4 t6 M突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。& D' d% i, y; A/ T& \7 G9 E
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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