×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23137
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 111
[oldrank] => 111
[lastpost] => 1810237 信用网 1708809076 果果哥
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2772 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
4 F5 g! `* c2 @. z) Y, n那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
) k" u& T0 \# c3 _' T+ j; yA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}
& j+ G |, B1 O2 K% \A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}/ E$ ~; t, e! ^- \
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
; W0 E# {& ~4 M8 U2 u. S5 ]5 L% |; TP(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}
; i- m" \$ }/ ~% j4 F* Z二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)7 d7 o0 p5 B% ]" K6 p/ d% S5 l- m
假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
4 r$ t7 P/ A( ?% S6 }* K# o4 X{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生$ v6 J) p; J" I9 ^( g, x
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
4 n9 A/ n W; v' m0 }! ~{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生 p! U3 A* C7 k: s
以及
% x. W% o5 V+ Y5 o; U }9 E{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生# }2 u8 v6 D0 a; ?* q; P
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
3 s" G! y$ u+ }; U{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生; @: i% m( u) }/ e# |
如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率8 d6 H* Y/ E: y; Z9 {: d) b; m
那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
% F' y) n* [7 b& d( f! qE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]! Z, r( v" u+ M/ X# x
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]) f% p; l5 ]# X9 s: M9 [. P5 f6 Q) Z0 v
按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等& q: I8 ^5 y7 K0 q
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)! I- W8 }4 W" N- c
P(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
! C; ]0 H1 C5 a* i6 n6 Y" sO(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式
. [' n4 l3 J7 r) T$ |E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)' P8 j' G& X3 l% J
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=1
7 N% ~* }3 I1 ]O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式
# ` D) ?. p& k) a9 z- P: G3 K在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
8 h8 r4 ?- x/ L! c* F: M. c' x三、半球盘的计算描述0 R: ?: N) N9 U( y2 W
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)
5 g% u# C: p/ E+ v) O还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:7 j8 ~; O0 H( V( B; d4 l( H' c
{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
5 r) ?/ `7 `; n, VR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
+ P. r- M/ K% q+ m" @% F{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
3 e; {4 b! P5 l以及. r! _; i7 A- g/ g6 G8 l
{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生& \; m, [4 ^/ M4 r
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生5 H n8 n' T. H4 G0 C" ]' U
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
, p$ i) e! @) e) K! {如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率
5 Y: G$ U' Q# g/ _; ~投注主客的期望回报总数分别为' @" D7 d% @2 E% S! i
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
. W g. H% j/ [, w8 M2 kE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)
+ h/ h! @! j+ z假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
* \) I7 p- Z' `5 yE[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)
' V* m4 s4 A/ v- y4 F, e3 GO(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1
/ u+ `( J( a$ P$ b% v3 u* GO(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
5 Z% @ i: |) }) ?E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)
: ~8 X- B* y# c6 u3 vP(a)*O(a)=1
! v+ r4 H/ V5 _: s! N" P% E/ L/ MO(a)=1/P(a)
6 h. L- R- g& r! c同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率& D& [: @1 R6 C0 a7 ^0 y) ^4 E* ]
O(h)=1/p(h)0 n* ^! q2 H1 x1 m1 j2 o5 C
O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]0 O/ W8 H; a: L/ } @: O" M! n
四、平半球盘的计算描述0 z' a. E4 F' C1 d: }+ e; N
这个稍复杂一点
" W+ C/ V% M) w8 b; A! _接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)3 I1 O( i! b" \; Q
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
. w1 b0 k' M6 K. [{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生+ h& o o% |2 p+ U r+ B' _$ R9 d! J
R(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
) l$ l9 b- o2 Q3 z& z{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
4 b k4 u7 D3 }) C2 K+ O9 q4 @以及
7 j) h3 Q. }- R- q! {( y3 M{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生% Q# S8 t! s4 ], s
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
1 F: Z) u, @( M! c7 n1 b{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生6 W8 A" V6 N V. S5 M6 z( T% W
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
6 A; A2 ^$ T6 }7 S7 GE[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))
9 n: {0 H& [/ \: c: A2 }+ _' YE[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]
$ P5 j, i2 j5 h7 Y; U2 ^和上面计算过程相似,得出:+ w) p9 I# `5 R7 q" ]$ t5 o6 W
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)
- v* x9 O6 D8 v' {P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1
* E6 j6 A2 E+ y# l cO(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1( u/ ?" N7 R# K4 E
O(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))
8 p( K* D4 U0 v3 TE[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a): P$ X* O& I: C( D# i
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1) N- q5 P E' L
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)% D0 z$ \" x0 I: o! t2 \8 E
同样主队让平半就分别是! f% [. p" |1 p3 r4 _
O(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)4 H6 V, O( R# X" a& f
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))* X1 t. d6 Z0 ?7 a
五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)0 ]5 H- M, |# t$ H+ w
可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算- u5 \3 J8 n' D1 q a* ?' K2 y s- g
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}& a; M+ u, w' h
B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
1 I+ R6 Q4 a. H; S7 uB(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数
- \% l1 K/ G) f6 d3 E- e接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
[( y, t }5 K e{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生3 t$ w% n7 u# |+ @
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
' E8 q9 e1 U$ R. C$ n: @{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
+ o3 s& b$ n1 q: c+ K# B以及1 B6 r1 ^- F: l. U
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
' D) x1 g% M, |/ E& ?, U7 wR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
$ {% j9 Z. J; W6 @4 k{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
# t, Z" |1 u+ [- w1 R. i投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
5 a! O; q% A+ F7 w. q/ mE[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]. O' a4 f: x4 ?2 F. k! m
E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))
0 ~, ], G& s u9 l3 u* e5 ]假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
3 V1 C8 V: F. G& s0 hE[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)( C1 y6 |: x! S/ Y, C6 M. K; E/ M
P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=10 ]5 Q3 N+ k* F7 l& q
O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)
7 c( U% V# J# S) V$ C) \O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))0 N1 g Q+ v9 b0 w1 R
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)6 x. ~- B2 M& m6 v2 d) h% v
P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
* q! C/ M- L0 M) `& C. cO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)( N7 i: D0 X/ E0 x* P8 b: ^% @
O(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h)). u ^. w$ V9 ^) `* m# f8 W' N- ?
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。. A. Q# l7 ~6 `! Y# e0 m( |- x
简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7827 小时
本月在线: 18 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 59 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 91 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 105 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1426 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1116 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4842 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 6295 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 5136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1814 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|