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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 + S7 ?8 { K5 W3 _) x& U: t
余勋也不例外、
5 x+ X5 _# s. A2 p4 g1 y* j其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
% v% e/ N0 J, A0 x是保经济的重要决策！ 4 G$ t6 _' E3 s4 `
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
4 i2 l& Z8 A8 `* o8 `6 {8 d2 l9 p低点26700-32400、
, T3 x4 k. l; v9 K$ _反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
2 z- U7 y, y5 a0 X2 S1 D0 k1 I但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 * c+ m3 T0 d# h( X& J( u
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
; [7 y' c" j1 b. W. Z5 t5 p, D涨幅就已回撤过半！ , n7 r/ u0 Z" o5 q. N
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
/ F0 V6 G9 f7 K不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
9 K5 I- d. r/ t3 o; u3 j E, W其次、 2 H" U- P- m( h$ x7 |9 O& f
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
! B( H7 I! X$ N1 I( | O _每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 * [8 h2 D+ p% U8 k+ {3 }$ M$ v9 ]
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
7 ?4 k! n, @ s! l4 b美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
& h3 D; d# a5 n) A- d7 ]9 I( q9 o但回到币圈、 & J( t6 I9 A$ c6 M
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
0 |4 w- M" ~- D0 q9 L1 j在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 8 `& a9 ?6 I2 z3 x- C* Y
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 , t" J( q8 Z4 \
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ! v1 v# ^. {5 Y- q% q0 k1 b
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 2 {4 X; T. G! a3 |2 P& @
对当前的底部、影响有限。
, @5 Z* r6 t; O0 B' d- Z5 W6 n最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ! u$ F8 Z& d( m: o: y
所以27000、即是
' i# m8 h0 v' _5 d7 F* C6 h去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） & b2 D# Y6 I& G+ ^& n
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 + N' P& M" i j: m
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 0 ?6 e1 `9 Y+ a5 ]+ J
由此得出的结论是、 # m6 U3 p8 w5 \* J! P
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 7 N5 o8 d+ c& d1 ~
点位不会出现太大偏离。 : k! @" H" Y& a' a; v) l" w2 E
综合以上、 5 E) Y. R( d5 ^: _8 |3 \
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
+ c' x# g+ w) `- F- c! [在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 2 m& _, z7 T& B, C
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ( }" G# N# K9 M9 ]; {& U$ C
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 - L! M# x8 O2 F2 m9 |8 _( |9 t
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
: F0 K* P2 i5 V6 b8 `即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 % h$ h: _; e; U4 V
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
' G3 N; K9 U4 C& M夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 & m e* R, f' H+ x6 T3 ]9 e: R
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
1 W; i! ?7 ^& F' Q% O4 T1 V逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 * l3 p8 _3 O& r' c0 h, ?( ^5 n
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
# U$ R# v) u. J- F反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
8 U# K7 d6 f; |. k得不偿失。 ; e; |# [# y$ |& D) Z! Q, j
来源：金色财经 |
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