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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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! x$ H- m- l. l* F3 |全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔5 H0 O% g( {1 {. B# j2 n/ X! r4 o

4 E' W1 R" U6 w' d: V& M  z三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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3 K6 ]  E3 L- M. M5 M) O2 b6 k然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱! a9 s6 z$ [5 p- S2 c  ?! E

, \* \# C9 v: L6 `% ?$ p当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目! I) h0 t' I$ M! X
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6 E9 S2 g) b+ w: {& F亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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) u6 r  D$ V  c" D0 y而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，& x8 M* a. }3 D2 c' K- s
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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# m2 H, t7 j: j, N理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。5 u1 {2 z6 [2 L- H

9 ?7 U5 v. Q5 h+ M8 k# M排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，7 l- A2 w4 _4 F! B0 c
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，" z4 n% Y, t  c1 M- f, h
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，( O: J, d& g# g5 ]
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。2 I' L& k7 s' g' |+ p

3 s) f" s7 J6 F! S: v8 I, q/ ?, O' I9 @放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，5 L- k& W" J7 m  z
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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& |- s, Z: a5 E' p$ m' M大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，* X3 ]' X3 G$ K8 u. a1 c

# V7 C$ ?8 W4 @: M. M* K! A回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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