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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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! O3 I/ J2 V% V* V- m- `# X+ o3 p但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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/ ^6 c. F) r9 I/ P8 WUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
! y8 C4 D: }/ D1 d$ s# m2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal' y0 N! b; q& I8 \
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。- O& y% r; d( Z
+ d9 e4 F, A1 ~ q尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。1 H' c% B, v) c+ W$ X# r) h
: D' j* U% r6 D1 \! s0 e事情变得有趣了' K& |/ P3 c7 r- C2 Y; |4 |" M1 N
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X
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7 e& F6 {7 z, u5 |根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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" `5 X2 N5 _. Y( K9 N# n+ vBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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/ H9 w4 E2 z: f: U) r正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。. I( L. F* `9 I, f+ \' W. X
$ w; ?. q# C3 @5 |- z$ f( `5 `随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。3 |( J0 Q( A' @( [
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
5 R6 n. _- t Q/ s( }经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。, J+ X% \/ G) L$ g& e
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来源：TradingView" M4 \( x f0 o% Z9 s2 x+ ?
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。- L& v$ x; }8 t0 o+ z3 r
' o7 W, W% a& v2 a- ~然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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) I$ [' v3 o% W8 X5 c4 Y0 {* j突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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