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[lastpost] => 2778345 亚洲早间简报：交易员调整风险，比特币市场重回谨慎平静。（转） 1762236397 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。$ V" U1 T/ ^+ z$ m, B4 i: y# z* I% Q
: k2 b# b5 k) u3 M9 y/ `但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？, p- A j. q, s. A
0 w2 m5 r( ^% D) ^. c7 C- g/ C开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
# c D4 H- `8 A( \6 v& G2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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! b: Z/ X: e0 W( _' Q' B2 S) [1 F来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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9 h$ b1 \: B+ `4 k. ?: \尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。7 }& J) I( x# l8 p
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事情变得有趣了% f8 s4 I% u6 d+ k# ?
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。. U. |: E0 y- S9 b8 S' `' @/ t
$ X" H! I! `& Z来源：X1 w. [+ b' c. x/ X1 C4 T) @
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。4 h+ X, u* G0 W
2 [0 C7 n; {- T8 E) EBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。1 T0 w5 R! ]5 P% U- E5 q- ^/ Y+ Y
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。* q( M7 ^6 f8 _* X$ k
& ]8 Z. t; z0 a8 q7 ~4 o7 W空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
, a: o4 U7 L- c/ R9 h, U- q) u: Z' x7 k经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。 k% x2 C" \" t C
& N, G0 _/ U5 \$ c# I" f+ @来源：TradingView1 S2 N( n+ j- w, H
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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0 ^; ]3 _( L$ t1 m然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。+ E' F& u9 `! l3 _5 t, o1 s& C1 d
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。7 I% s* J! e! {4 E
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